实际汇率在经济总量赶超中的作用：全球视角与对比分析

Core Insights - The article examines the impact of real exchange rate appreciation on economic catch-up using data from 191 economies from 1960 to 2021, finding that a slight appreciation (around 4%) aids domestic economic growth and has a significant statistical effect on economic catch-up [2][4][6] - Economic growth is identified as the primary means to achieve economic catch-up, contributing nearly 80%, while the contribution of real exchange rate appreciation is about 20% [2][4][6] - During periods of rapid economic growth, real exchange rates have a more pronounced positive effect, while significant depreciation during crises hampers the speed of economic catch-up [2][4][6] - Countries with low economic growth, high nominal exchange rate volatility, and high inflation are more likely to fall into the "middle-income trap" [2][4][6] - Compared to Japan and South Korea, China faces greater pressure to catch up as its economic growth has noticeably slowed before crossing the "middle-income trap" [2][4][6] Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate - Domestic economic stability is fundamental for achieving economic catch-up, with real exchange rates influencing growth through various channels [4][6] - Historical examples, such as Japan's experience from 1960 to 1995, illustrate that real exchange rate changes significantly impacted economic performance, with appreciation contributing 68% to GDP growth relative to the U.S. [4][6] - The analysis of China and the U.S. shows a notable decline in the GDP ratio from 80.66% in 2021 to 74.54% in 2023, primarily due to inflation differentials and nominal exchange rate depreciation [5][6] Statistical Role of Real Exchange Rate - The statistical contribution of real exchange rates to economic catch-up is significant, with an average contribution of 40.64% to GDP growth since 1960 [22][23] - The article highlights that real exchange rate fluctuations have a substantial impact on the nominal GDP growth rate, especially during periods of economic instability [22][23] - The findings suggest that while real exchange rate appreciation can enhance GDP growth, excessive volatility and depreciation can lead to adverse economic outcomes [22][23] Economic Catch-Up Dynamics - Economic growth is the dominant factor in achieving economic catch-up, with a contribution rate of approximately 80% when weighted by GDP share [27][28] - Economies characterized by high exchange rate volatility and inflation struggle to escape the "middle-income trap," as evidenced by the performance of various regions [28][29] - The article categorizes economies into different types based on their growth drivers, emphasizing that those reliant on real exchange rate movements often experience lower growth rates [27][28]