基金发行回暖，但离“疯牛”还远！人民币狂飙下，聪明钱布局2026

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a warming trend in fund issuance, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment [1][3] - Compared to previous "bull market" conditions, the current market remains rational, with investors cautiously positioning themselves for more certain opportunities, particularly looking ahead to 2026 [2][10] - The number and scale of newly issued funds have increased significantly in the first 11 months of 2024, with stock funds surpassing bond funds for the first time, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards equities [3][7] Group 2 - Historical patterns suggest that extreme fund issuance can signal market tops, as seen in 2007, 2015, and early 2021, indicating that current fund issuance levels are still far from a frenzy [5][7] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is attracting overseas capital into the Chinese market, benefiting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as it makes local assets more appealing [8][10] - Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and potential easing measures from the People's Bank of China could ignite market activity, with a possibility of transitioning from a structural market to a broader bull market by 2026 [10][12] Group 3 - The upcoming year-end period is traditionally a time for increased lending and investment, suggesting that sectors like technology, new energy, and leading consumer stocks may present good opportunities for early positioning [12][13] - The current market phase is characterized as neither a peak of exuberance nor a bottom of despair, but rather a critical moment that tests investor patience and strategy [13]