本周机构研判：2026年“春季躁动”行情还会有吗？

Market Overview - A-shares have mostly risen this week due to improved market sentiment and increased risk appetite, with the ChiNext Index showing the best performance, up 1.86% for the week [1] Insurance Sector Insights - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has adjusted the risk factors for insurance companies investing in related stocks, encouraging long-term capital to enter the market. This adjustment could release an equity allocation space of up to 100 billion yuan [2] - The reduction in risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments is expected to inject more liquidity into the market, as it allows for greater insurance fund inflows [3] Market Predictions - December may serve as a window for positioning in the cross-year market, with historical trends indicating that low trading volumes during an uptrend can be good buying opportunities [4] - The spring market rally for 2026 may begin as early as mid-December 2023, driven by positive policy stances and improved liquidity conditions [5] - The current market fluctuations may be a normal state before unexpected changes in fundamentals occur, with a focus on resource and traditional manufacturing sectors [6] Sector Performance - The adjustment period for key industry sectors has been sufficient, with gaming and technology sectors showing signs of potential rebounds [9] - The technology growth stocks are expected to benefit from global capital reallocation opportunities, particularly with the anticipated Fed rate cuts [10] - Both technology and cyclical sectors are expected to drive market performance, with opportunities emerging in underperforming growth sectors [11] Overall Market Direction - The overall market trend remains upward, supported by rising risk appetite in overseas markets and increasing domestic policy expectations [12]