降息还能推高美元？美联储这波操作，看懂的人都在悄悄换美元

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have paradoxically led to a strengthening of the US dollar, attributed to the resilience of the US economy and relative weakness in other global economies [1][28]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 17 and another on October 29 [1]. - Despite the rate cuts, the US dollar index increased from 96.64 on September 16 to 100.15 on November 21, a rise of 3.6% [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - US inflation has remained around 3.0%, not reaching the Fed's target of 2%, leading to a cautious approach on further rate cuts [6]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% at the beginning of the year to 4.4% in September, yet non-farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations [8]. - Employment in healthcare and education sectors rebounded, indicating sustained basic demand in the economy [9]. Group 3: Investment and Yield - The 10-year US Treasury yield remains high at 4.06%, with real yields exceeding 1.8%, making US assets attractive globally [11]. - The reduction in available dollars due to the Fed's actions, including balance sheet reduction, has contributed to the dollar's strength [11]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - The US economy is performing better than other major economies, with the Eurozone and Japan facing significant challenges [13][15]. - The Euro has depreciated from 1.187 to 1.151 against the dollar, reflecting economic struggles in the Eurozone [15]. - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in Q3, while core CPI has exceeded 2% for 43 consecutive months, indicating a "stagflation" scenario [17]. Group 5: Trade and Investment Trends - The US trade deficit narrowed to $328.1 billion from April to August, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%, indicating improved domestic production [21][23]. - Private investment is showing signs of recovery, with growth expected to rise from 1.3% in Q2 to 4.9% in Q3, supported by government infrastructure spending [24]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the dollar's strength will depend on future economic indicators and the Fed's decisions, particularly regarding the December meeting [26][29]. - A synchronized global economic recovery or a "hard landing" for the US economy could alter the current dollar dynamics [28].