国金策略：新的变化正在出现，未来结构上的信号可能比总量更加清晰

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a period of low trading volume and volatility, with a significant decrease in trading activity and market sentiment due to the lack of new economic or financial data and the upcoming key policy meetings [2][10] - In contrast to the A-share market's stagnation, commodity prices, particularly silver and copper, have seen strong increases, driven by low inventory levels and changing demand dynamics influenced by new industries and policy shifts [2][13] Group 2 - Recent changes in the financial market include a relaxation of constraints on non-bank financial institutions, which is expected to bring more incremental capital into the market and benefit the long-term asset side of non-bank institutions as A-share earnings recover [3][19] - Historical data suggests that after previous relaxations of risk factors for insurance companies and increased leverage for brokerages, the market has performed well, indicating potential for excess returns in the non-bank sector compared to the overall market [3][21] Group 3 - Positive marginal changes in external demand are emerging, with significant improvements in new export orders and related indicators, suggesting a rebound in China's export growth [4][22] - Long-term trends indicate that the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle typically leads to a loosening of global liquidity, which can stimulate foreign direct investment and trade demand, benefiting China's exports [4][24] Group 4 - Despite some fluctuations in overseas interest rate cut expectations, the focus remains on the U.S. labor market, which is currently weak, with recent data showing job losses and high unemployment rates [5][37] - The market anticipates that even if there are short-term fluctuations in the interest rate cut pace, the overall trend towards lower rates is likely to continue, supporting global investment and manufacturing recovery [5][42] Group 5 - The A-share market's current low trading volume and cooling sentiment may lead to clearer structural signals in the future, with potential benefits from the relaxation of constraints on non-bank institutions and the recovery of overall A-share earnings [6][48] - Recommendations for investment include focusing on industrial resource chains, non-bank capital expansion, China's equipment exports, and sectors benefiting from increased consumer spending as capital flows back into the market [6][48]