Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its rebound next week, driven by rising policy expectations, although the strength of the rebound will depend on the implementation of policies and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The market experienced a volume contraction and fluctuations this week, with expectations for a rebound in the coming week [1][2] - The technology sector is anticipated to have rebound opportunities, particularly in the Hang Seng Tech Index and the upcoming IPO of Changxin [1][2] - The brokerage sector has a foundation for a rebound due to being oversold, while the real estate and consumer sectors, which have been declining, may also see policy support [1][2] Group 2: Key Events - The market will face three critical events next week: the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, which may increase market volatility [3] - The market has begun to price in expectations for loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies from the Politburo meeting [3] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the reduction of risk factors for insurance companies and proposed reforms in the securities industry, are expected to boost market confidence [3] Group 3: External Market Influences - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December remains at 86%, with the US dollar index falling below 99 [4] - The US has shifted its national security strategy, which may positively influence market sentiment in China [4] - Japanese bond yields have surged, impacting global risk-free rates and putting pressure on equity valuations [4] Group 4: Market Activity and Fund Flows - The market saw further volume contraction, with A-share average daily turnover dropping to below 1.7 trillion and Hong Kong stocks at 190 billion, marking a four-month low [5] - Stock ETFs have remained stable, with a net inflow of 27.6 billion since November, while margin financing has continued to see net inflows of 10 billion [5] - Southbound capital inflows have decreased to 11.3 billion HKD, with a slowdown in fund inflows to the internet sector [5]
海通国际：政策窗口临近 市场反弹动能有望延续