“护城河”理论过时了：“共识平原”时代到来｜狮也咨询《思想领袖系列》

Core Argument - The article argues that the "moat" theory, which has dominated business strategy for the past three decades, is becoming obsolete as the world transitions to a new strategic paradigm called the "consensus plain" [2][3][5]. Group 1: The Decline of the Moat Theory - The moat theory, introduced by Warren Buffett in 1993, emphasized the importance of having a strong competitive advantage to protect investment returns from competitors [2]. - Historical examples illustrate how established companies like Coca-Cola, Kodak, and Walmart have seen their competitive advantages eroded by new entrants that leverage changing consumer preferences and technological advancements [3][5]. - The moat's effectiveness is diminishing as the business landscape shifts from a closed castle model to an open value network model, leading to a strategic paradigm shift [5]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Moat - The moat consists of three essential elements: scarcity, control, and isolation, which were relevant during the industrial era characterized by limited resources [9]. - Brand moats rely on monopolizing consumer perception through significant advertising investments [9]. - Patent moats utilize legal protections to create exclusive advantages based on technological scarcity [9]. - Scale moats achieve cost advantages through high production volumes, allowing companies to dominate pricing [9]. Group 3: Forces Eroding the Moat - Three converging forces are dismantling the moat: the abundance of resources, the networked nature of value creation, and the fluidity of consumer consensus [12][10]. - The abundance of resources, facilitated by cloud computing and open-source movements, has transformed previously scarce resources into accessible infrastructures [12]. - Value is increasingly generated within interconnected ecosystems rather than solely within individual companies, diminishing the relevance of traditional moats [12]. - Consumer loyalty is shifting from static brand recognition to dynamic engagement with values and narratives, making traditional brand moats vulnerable [12]. Group 4: The Consensus Plain Strategy - The "consensus plain" strategy emerges as a new approach when moat logic fails, characterized by an open value creation and exchange environment [13]. - The consensus plain is defined by a shared vision and collaborative rules, attracting participants who contribute to its value [15]. - A strong consensus plain consists of three layers: narrative consensus (the overarching story), rule consensus (operational guidelines), and value consensus (how value is shared) [16]. Group 5: Constructing the Consensus Plain - Building a consensus plain involves a four-step foundational method: identifying value vacuums, crafting a compelling narrative, designing initial rules, and initiating a "cold start flywheel" [22][23]. - Identifying areas with unmet needs is crucial for establishing a consensus plain, as demonstrated by Pinduoduo's focus on price-sensitive consumers [24]. - A powerful narrative serves as the gravitational force for the consensus plain, as seen in Huawei's vision for a unified operating system [29]. - Initial rules must be simple and transparent, facilitating participation and collaboration, as exemplified by BYD's open supply chain model [30]. Group 6: The Evolution of Rules in the Consensus Plain - The power lies in the continuous definition and evolution of rules within the consensus plain, requiring companies to transition from product managers to civilization architects [36]. - Rule definition grants significant commercial power, as illustrated by NVIDIA's dominance through its CUDA ecosystem [37]. - Rules must evolve to maintain vitality and balance, necessitating gradual experimentation and community governance [40]. Group 7: Interactions Between Consensus Plains - As multiple consensus plains coexist, competition and cooperation create a complex landscape, leading to various relationships such as absorption, bridging, and confrontation [50][51]. - The collaboration between national-level and regional plains exemplifies how different levels can resonate and enhance overall value creation [55].