美国制造业创新低，特朗普的“救命方案”曝光，反而坑了自己

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in the U.S. manufacturing sector, as indicated by the PMI, reflects deeper contradictions in its industrial policy amidst a sluggish global economic recovery [1][4][31] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - The November manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 in October to 48.2, below the market expectation of 49, indicating a significant acceleration in contraction [5] - The PMI has remained below the critical threshold of 50 for nine consecutive months, suggesting that the weakness in U.S. manufacturing is not a short-term fluctuation [5] - Among the five sub-indices that make up the PMI, four key indicators—new orders, employment, and inventory—are in contraction territory, indicating pressure across the entire manufacturing chain [7] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Only four out of numerous surveyed industries reported growth, while eleven industries are in contraction, highlighting a general decline in industry sentiment [9] - High-value-added sectors like chips, aircraft, engines, and automobiles, which traditionally have strong resilience, are facing erosion of their advantages due to declining orders and rising raw material prices [11] - The uncertainty stemming from current tariff policies is seen as a significant factor affecting market confidence, more so than the tariffs themselves [14] Group 3: Tariff Policy Implications - The ongoing tariff pressures, initiated by the Trump administration, are viewed as a core factor in the manufacturing sector's struggles [12] - Tariff measures have led to increased raw material costs and have disrupted global supply chains, which are critical for U.S. high-end manufacturing [18] - The U.S. government is reportedly preparing alternative tariff strategies, which may still face legal challenges, indicating ongoing instability in trade policy [23][25] Group 4: Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector's revival is contingent upon moving away from protectionist policies and re-engaging with a multilateral trade system to create a stable trade environment [31] - The potential consequences of failing to address tariff-related issues could lead to significant financial losses and further complications in international trade agreements [27]