2026年策略展望：大类资产定价的K型背离-黄金坐标系的切换与财政风险溢

Core Insights - The report discusses a fundamental shift in the global asset pricing paradigm from a "monetary-dominated" phase to a "fiscal-dominated" phase, characterized by significant "K-shaped divergence" among various asset classes [1][2][6] - The report highlights that U.S. equities continue to reach new highs despite ongoing employment data declines, indicating a desensitization to recession pricing [1][2] - Gold has broken free from the suppression of high real interest rates, exhibiting an independent market trend, while the relationship between copper prices and inflation expectations has weakened [1][2] Group 1: K-shaped Divergence - The K-shaped divergence is evident as U.S. stocks show a significant deviation from employment data, with a divergence degree of approximately 140%-170% for U.S. stocks and interest rates, and over 400% for gold [1][2][6] - The core driver of this divergence is the embedded "fiscal risk premium" in asset prices, which has become a critical variable since 2022 [1][2][6] Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - Quantitative assessments reveal that the divergence between nominal interest rates and implied rates for gold and copper has reached a maximum of 660 basis points since 2022 [1][2][6] - The initial phase of the fiscal risk premium has been primarily priced through extreme increases in gold, rather than directly impacting nominal interest rates [1][2][6] Group 3: Future Scenarios - Three potential macro paths for the evolution of K-shaped divergence are outlined: 1. A mild recovery scenario where the market remains in the gold coordinate system, awaiting a correction in copper prices and inflation expectations [2][6] 2. An inflation runaway scenario leading to political shocks and visible fiscal risks, resulting in soaring interest rates and a depreciation of the dollar [2][6] 3. A scenario of economic contraction where worsening employment may trigger liquidity pressures, although the safe-haven attributes of U.S. Treasuries may limit their downside [2][6] Group 4: Dollar Dynamics - The dollar's performance is significantly influenced by "relative fiscal risk," with non-U.S. economies facing earlier fiscal pressures, thereby supporting the structural strength of the dollar [2][6]