洪灏：2026年美股将会先涨后跌 美联储即将重启扩表推高风险资产

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to rise initially and then decline, driven by the current liquidity cycle not being over [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming year will see a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which is contributing to a tight short-term funding market in the U.S. [1] - Short-term interest rates are currently higher than the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate, indicating a need for the Fed to lower interest rates next week [1] - The Federal Reserve has abandoned its plan to reduce its balance sheet, which is currently around $6 trillion, due to issues in the repurchase market [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The potential for the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet again could lead to new heights, resulting in an increase in risk asset prices [1] - The current market conditions suggest that shorting risk assets may not be a favorable strategy, as there is a belief that risk assets will rise before eventually falling [1]