热点思考 | 大逆转与再平衡——2026年美国劳动力市场展望（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the significant decline in non-farm employment in the U.S. since mid-2025, raising concerns about rising unemployment risks and the impact of AI on the job market [1][4] - AI adoption in the U.S. has increased from 3.7% to 10% over two years, with a notable rise in layoffs, particularly in the tech sector, where 21.7% of layoffs in October were reported [1][4][13] - The structural impact of AI on employment is evident in high-exposure industries, younger workers, and high-paying jobs, but overall, AI is not the primary cause of the employment downturn [1][19][29] Group 2 - The main reasons for the employment reversal in 2025 include a contraction in supply due to reduced immigration and government layoffs, alongside weakened demand [2][42] - The net inflow of illegal immigrants has decreased significantly, accounting for approximately half of the decline in new employment, with estimates suggesting a drop of 1.6 to 2 million illegal immigrants in 2025 [2][49][54] - Government layoffs and tariff impacts have contributed significantly to the employment slowdown, with government sector influences accounting for 37% of the decline in non-farm employment [2][64] Group 3 - In 2026, the labor market is expected to gradually rebalance, but short-term demand weaknesses will remain a core issue, with unemployment rates likely to rise [3][100] - The supply side may continue to contract due to stringent immigration policies, while demand may stabilize as government layoffs taper off [3][91] - The potential for AI to further impact employment remains, with studies indicating that AI could replace 11.7% of U.S. jobs, but the immediate risk of mass layoffs due to AI is considered low [3][95][100]