宏观政策维持宽松基调 为“十五五”开局奠定基础

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The core viewpoint indicates that the macroeconomic policy for the fourth quarter maintains strategic consistency, focusing on precise efforts to stabilize economic growth while preparing for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - The Chief Economist Confidence Index for December 2025 is reported at 50, indicating a weak recovery in the economy, with expectations for continued loose macro policies to support the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Trends - The predicted growth rate for social retail sales in November is 3.09%, slightly higher than the previous month's 2.9%, driven by the "Double 11" shopping festival and a recovery in dining trends [5] - The forecast for fixed asset investment growth in November is -2.1%, indicating continued pressure from the real estate market and a decline in construction investment [7][8] Group 3: Industrial and Trade Performance - The predicted growth rate for industrial added value in November is 5.0%, showing a slight increase from the previous month's 4.9%, with improvements in manufacturing PMI indices [6] - The forecast for November's trade surplus is $999.87 billion, higher than the previous month's $900.7 billion, with expectations for both imports and exports to show positive growth [10] Group 4: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The average prediction for new loans in November is 6,791 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month's 2,200 billion yuan, indicating a potential easing in credit conditions [11][12] - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential for further interest rate cuts and structural tools to support economic growth [15][20] Group 5: Inflation and Price Trends - The predicted Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth for November is 0.72%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecasted at -2.05%, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the economy [3][4]