今年我国国际收支口径 跨境直接投资逆势向好

Core Viewpoint - China's industrial enterprises' profits increased by 1.9% year-on-year in the first ten months of this year, reversing the negative growth seen in the first seven months, but still lagging behind the five-year compound average growth rate by 3.0 percentage points [1] Group 1: Foreign Direct Investment Trends - China has experienced significant fluctuations in foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years, with net inflows decreasing and net outflows increasing since 2022, raising concerns about "de-Chinaization" in global supply chains [1][2] - From 2021 to 2024, China's cross-border direct investment shifted from a surplus to a deficit, with a total increase in deficit of $319 billion, primarily due to a sharp decline in net inflows of foreign direct investment [3][4] - The net inflow of foreign direct investment dropped from $344.1 billion to $18.6 billion between 2021 and 2024, contributing significantly to the overall increase in direct investment deficit [3][5] Group 2: Capital Flow Dynamics - The reversal in capital flows is attributed to a drastic shift in equity investments and inter-company debt relations, with equity investments changing from a net inflow of $148.2 billion to a net outflow of $57.2 billion from 2021 to 2024 [4] - The decline in foreign direct investment net inflows is primarily due to a significant drop in equity investment net inflows, which decreased by 75.8% [5][6] - In 2023, the net inflow of equity investment was $86.9 billion, with a capital increase of $120 billion, indicating a negative gap of $33.1 billion [6][10] Group 3: Government Response and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government has emphasized the need to prevent and mitigate external shocks, focusing on deepening reforms and expanding high-level opening-up [7][8] - Despite external pressures, key economic indicators have performed well, with foreign direct investment net outflows decreasing by 50.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year [8][9] - The improvement in cross-border direct investment is attributed to a reduction in net outflows from inter-company debt and an increase in net inflows from equity investments [9][10] Group 4: Industry Performance - In the first ten months of this year, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China grew by 1.9%, although this growth is lower than the five-year compound average growth rate [12][13] - The non-financial outward direct investment from the Ministry of Commerce reached $110.7 billion in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, which is lower than the previous year's growth rate [13]