美联储降息概率飙至87%！全球市场屏息以待，9-10日议息会议将定调

Group 1 - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has surged from 62% to 87% according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch" tool, indicating strong market expectations for a 25 basis point cut during the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][6] - Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast, now expecting the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, a shift from previous expectations that cuts would be delayed until 2026 [1][3] - Recent economic signals, including a slight increase in unemployment from 4.3% to 4.4% and relatively mild inflation data, have created a conducive environment for a rate cut [8] Group 2 - There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to cut rates, with some officials advocating for aggressive cuts to support the economy, while others express concerns about rising inflation pressures [3][4] - Notable figures such as New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly have indicated a dovish stance, suggesting that further adjustments to policy may be necessary to avoid risks to the labor market [3][4] - The market has largely priced in the expectation of a 0.25% rate cut, with analysts noting that the Fed typically avoids surprising the market when its policy direction is clear [6][10] Group 3 - The latest economic data supports the expectation of a rate cut, with employment growth exceeding expectations but accompanied by a slight rise in the unemployment rate, indicating a nuanced labor market [8] - JPMorgan had previously predicted that the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the next four meetings, potentially lowering the policy rate to 3.5% [8] - The focus is shifting towards how the Fed will balance its dual mandate of controlling inflation while supporting employment, making the upcoming rate decision a critical event for global financial markets [10]