FPI一年撤走1.55万亿卢比！卢比贬值+全球不确定性，外资大逃离？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant outflow of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) from India, driven by currency depreciation and global trade tensions, while domestic institutional investors (DII) have stepped in to absorb the sell-off, maintaining market stability. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - In 2025, a total of 1.55 trillion rupees (approximately 17.7 billion USD) has been withdrawn, indicating a general tightening of foreign investor sentiment amid global trade headwinds [1] - In the first week of December, FPI recorded a net outflow of 118.2 billion rupees (13 million USD), primarily influenced by a significant depreciation of the rupee and heightened risk aversion among investors [3] - November also saw a net outflow of 37.65 billion rupees [4] - Despite a brief rebound in October with a net inflow of 146.1 billion rupees, the preceding three months experienced substantial outflows: September saw 238.85 billion rupees, August 349.9 billion rupees, and July 177 billion rupees, indicating a clear downward trend in foreign investment during the second half of the year [5] Group 2: Currency Impact and Market Sentiment - The rupee's depreciation of nearly 5% has been identified as a primary driver of the current foreign capital exit, with analysts noting that currency fluctuations are a significant factor in this round of FPI sell-offs [6] - Analysts from Angel One pointed out that year-end portfolio restructuring is a common global phenomenon, and the delay in the India-US trade agreement has further exacerbated foreign investors' cautious sentiment [7] Group 3: Domestic Institutional Response - Interestingly, despite the ongoing foreign sell-off, the Indian stock market has not faced significant disruption, as domestic institutional investors (DII) purchased 197.83 billion rupees worth of stocks, fully offsetting the foreign outflows [8] - Market confidence is supported by robust GDP growth expectations, improved corporate earnings outlook, and interest rate cuts, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announcing a 25 basis point rate cut on December 5, leading to a rare net inflow of 64.2 billion rupees from FPI on that day [8] - The RBI has also revised its GDP growth forecast for FY2026 upwards to 7.3% and lowered the CPI forecast to 2%, enhancing investor confidence in India's growth prospects [8] Group 4: Global Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a general expectation in the market that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming FOMC meeting, which could lead to a renewed easing of global liquidity [9] - A shift back to a more accommodative global liquidity environment could improve sentiment towards risk assets, benefiting emerging markets like India [10] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - In the bond market, FPI investment remains below quota levels, with a recorded outflow of 690 million rupees through voluntary retention routes (VRR) [11]