新能源浪潮拉动需求，硫磺价格持续暴涨

Industry Overview - Sulfur prices have surged from less than 1,000 yuan/ton to over 4,000 yuan/ton since the second half of last year, continuing an upward trend, putting significant pressure on downstream phosphate fertilizer companies without self-supply capabilities [1] - The cost of phosphate fertilizer has increased by approximately 1,500 yuan/ton compared to the first half of last year due to rising sulfur prices, with each 100 yuan increase in sulfur price leading to a 50 yuan increase in phosphate fertilizer costs [1] - The supply side of sulfur is heavily influenced by the Russian refineries facing uncontrollable factors, with Russia's sulfur export volume dropping from 3.9 million tons in 2019 to an estimated 1.04 million tons in 2024 due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict [1] Company Insights - Sanwei Chemical has developed a leading domestic and internationally advanced sulfur recovery technology without online furnaces, with a total of 245 sulfur recovery units designed and contracted, amounting to a total capacity of 13.166 million tons/year, making it the company with the most sulfur recovery units designed and contracted in China [3] - Yuegui Co., Ltd. produces sulfur iron ore products and sulfuric acid, with the price increase of sulfur indirectly affecting the price of sulfur concentrate [3] Demand Projections - China's lithium iron phosphate production reached 2.66 million tons from January to September 2025, with an expected annual output exceeding 3.6 million tons, corresponding to an additional sulfur demand of 1.06 million tons [2] - Indonesia is projected to introduce approximately 658,000 tons of new MHP (nickel-cobalt hydroxide) capacity in 2026, further exacerbating the supply tightness for sulfur [2] - Solid-state battery technology is expected to converge on sulfide electrolytes, with lithium sulfide constituting 82% of the cost, potentially opening up long-term growth opportunities for sulfur [2]