利空影响减弱 焦炭有望逐步企稳

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal futures has been significant, with the 2601 contract experiencing an 11.4% drop in November, reaching a low of 1562.0 yuan/ton, nearing the lower boundary of the fluctuation range since July [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Coking coal supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to a bearish market outlook. The first round of coking coal price reductions has occurred, and coal prices continue to decline, allowing coking enterprises to maintain profit margins [3] - As of November 28, the average daily production of coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 764,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons per day compared to the week of November 7 [1][3] - The average daily output of iron water from 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week, but still higher than the same period last year [3] Market Conditions - The market atmosphere has weakened due to increased supply, with the coking coal auction failure rate rising to 30%-60% in mid to late November. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was reported at 1510 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton from the November peak [2] - The first round of coking coal price reductions has been implemented, with the price at Rizhao Port for premium wet quenching coke at 1620 yuan/ton and the ex-factory price at 1450 yuan/ton, with expectations for further price reductions [2] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve with potential positive signals in December, alongside expectations of production cuts in coal mines at year-end, which may alleviate cost pressures for coking coal [4] - The overall bearish factors in the market are expected to slow down, and the main contract for coking coal may stabilize at the lower end of the fluctuation range [4]