36页|2025年第四季投资展望报告：把握人工智能崛起及减息机遇

Market Overview - The market sentiment and investor focus are shifting due to changing U.S. policies and accelerated technological innovation [1] - Concerns over tariffs, inflation, and rising U.S. debt have been overshadowed by strong economic performance and robust earnings driven by artificial intelligence [1] - Risk assets have shown strong performance year-to-date, with multiple stock indices reaching historical highs [1] Economic Outlook - There is potential for further upside in risk assets, with a notable shift in market expectations regarding U.S. interest rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve is becoming more confident in a gradual cooling of inflation, shifting focus towards moderate economic growth [1] - The bond market is expected to benefit from interest rate cuts, leading to an upgraded view on investment-grade bonds to a positive stance [1] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider bonds as cash asset returns decline, with a noted decrease in the correlation between stocks and bonds enhancing the diversification benefits of bonds [1] - The ongoing trend of artificial intelligence innovation is seen as a significant driver for future investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like software, cloud services, and automation [1][1] - The U.S. policy landscape is evolving, with the recent passage of the "Big Beautiful Bill" indicating a focus on deregulation, which may benefit financial and technology sectors [1] Regional Insights - The Asian markets, particularly China and Singapore, are viewed positively due to local stimulus measures and structural reforms [1] - China's focus on supply-side reforms and addressing price pressures is expected to enhance profit expectations, with a potential announcement of further structural reforms in upcoming meetings [1] - The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar are also favorable for Asian markets, providing a conducive environment for investment [1] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly driven by artificial intelligence, is expected to continue outperforming the overall economy, with significant contributions to the S&P 500 index [1] - Despite challenges in certain economic areas, evidence suggests that AI is helping companies reduce costs and improve services, indicating a positive outlook for the AI ecosystem [1] - The financial sector is anticipated to benefit from deregulation and improved credit quality, making it a favorable area for investment [1]