俄突陷贫境？财部：将大抛人民币与黄金

Core Viewpoint - Russia's Ministry of Finance announced plans to sell 56 billion rubles worth of yuan and gold daily starting December 5, continuing until 2026, raising concerns about the country's financial stability and prompting speculation about its economic situation [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Pressures - Russia is facing significant economic challenges due to ongoing Western sanctions, a sharp decline in energy revenues, and the financial burdens of an ongoing war [9][10][13]. - The country’s oil and gas revenues are expected to drop significantly, with estimates suggesting a loss of over a thousand billion rubles in December alone due to decreased global oil prices and reduced demand from Europe [10][25]. - The ongoing war is described as a "money-burning beast," leading to severe financial strain and forcing the government to tap into its National Welfare Fund [13][25]. Group 2: Financial Strategies - The sale of yuan and gold is seen as a desperate measure for immediate liquidity, as these assets are among the few that can be quickly converted into cash [5][15]. - The Russian government is employing a strategy to manage the influx of cash from these sales while preventing hyperinflation by simultaneously selling gold to absorb excess rubles from the market [15][24]. - Additional measures include imposing a one-time "windfall tax" on wealthy energy oligarchs and large corporations to generate further revenue [16][17]. Group 3: Market Adaptations - Russia has adapted to the withdrawal of Western companies by legalizing "parallel imports," allowing the importation of goods through third countries, thus stabilizing domestic markets [20][23]. - Despite these adaptations, there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of such measures, as they may lead to a technological downgrade and isolation from global advancements [28][29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The National Welfare Fund has reportedly shrunk by over half in the past two years, raising alarms about its viability if current spending continues [25]. - Predictions indicate that if oil prices do not recover, the fund could be depleted by mid-2026, posing serious questions about Russia's economic future [25][26].