Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-07 23:59Group 1: Core Insights - The funding environment has improved, with signs of recovery in allocation-type funds and a reduction in insurance risk factors potentially leading to increased equity asset allocation [2][4] - Recent trends indicate a marginal slowdown in trading funds, while private equity registrations have slowed to 178, but product issuance and positioning are expected to accelerate [2][3] Group 2: Economic Trends - The TMT sector, upstream resources, and public industries have shown significant improvement in economic sentiment over the past three months, with AI applications, price increases in commodities, and capital goods leading the way [3][4] - The construction PMI has strengthened, indicating a positive outlook for the infrastructure chain, while consumer goods such as cinema, cosmetics, and dairy products are also experiencing a recovery [3][4] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Anticipation of policy changes ahead of the December Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference is rising, with expectations for more proactive macro policies and a focus on expanding domestic demand [4] - Historical data suggests a higher probability of market gains leading up to the Central Economic Work Conference, particularly in sectors like consumer services and home appliances [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The market is currently in a phase of recovery, with potential for a "spring rally" to begin in late December, emphasizing a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors [4] - Key sectors to focus on include aviation equipment, AI chains, and power equipment for growth, while non-ferrous metals and certain chemicals are highlighted for cyclical investments [4]