华尔街前瞻：美联储内部分歧 聚焦鲍威尔指引与反对意见

Group 1 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in years, with investors focusing on the degree of disagreement among policymakers regarding "expected rate cuts" and signals from Chairman Jerome Powell about future policy direction [1] - Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 5 have expressed opposition or skepticism towards further easing policies, while 3 members of the Board of Governors support rate cuts [1] - The level of disagreement within the Federal Reserve appears to be at a peak, which could provide insights into future policy tendencies [1] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows that initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in over three years, alleviating concerns about a significant deterioration in the labor market and further supporting rate cut expectations [2] - The Chicago Federal Reserve estimates that the unemployment rate remained around 4.4% in November [2] - Market expectations indicate an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [3] Group 3 - The last rate cut occurred on October 29, reducing the policy rate from the 4.00%-4.25% range to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive 25 basis point cut this year [3] - Powell's statement that "a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion" caused market fluctuations, as many investors had previously viewed a rate cut as certain [3] - The S&P 500 has risen 16.6% year-to-date, and even with a potential rate cut, significant market volatility is not expected [3] Group 4 - The upcoming release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data on December 9 will provide insights into labor market trends, particularly in the current environment of "low hiring, low layoffs" [4] - Some observers believe the probability of a rate cut is not as high as the market suggests, emphasizing the importance of Powell's statements and the voting support rate [5] - The number of dissenting votes in the decision to cut rates will be crucial, reflecting the independence of regional Fed presidents and their influence on future decisions [5]