深夜 大跌！煤焦市场多空博弈加剧

Core Viewpoint - The volatility in coking coal and coke futures prices has increased, with traditional trading logic failing this year, leading to significant price declines in recent weeks [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Coking coal and coke futures saw substantial declines, with coking coal dropping 17% in November and coke prices falling 11% during the same period [3]. - The main futures contracts for both coking coal and coke experienced a sharp drop in the last trading session [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal prices have been under pressure due to a combination of factors, including increased imports and a decline in demand from steel mills, which have seen a reduction in iron output [3][4]. - Domestic coking coal production remains low, with recent weekly output at 1.9 million tons, the lowest for this time of year, while premium coal production is at 754,000 tons, significantly below last year's levels [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for coking coal prices is bearish, with expectations of stable supply but weak demand as the market enters a seasonal lull [4][5]. - The current futures contract for coking coal has dropped to around 1,000 yuan per ton, while the mainstream spot warehouse receipt cost exceeds 1,100 yuan per ton, indicating a significant premium [4].