美国债市现“三十年罕见之分歧”：美联储降息前夜，美长债收益率却“不跌反涨”

Core Viewpoint - The recent unexpected rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, indicates a significant divergence in market expectations regarding future interest rates and economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Market Reactions - Since the Federal Reserve began its current rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, the benchmark interest rate has been reduced by 1.5 percentage points to a range of 3.75%-4% [1]. - Typically, a reduction in short-term rates by the Federal Reserve leads to a decline in long-term Treasury yields; however, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by nearly 0.5 percentage points to 4.1%, and the 30-year yield has risen by over 0.8 percentage points [1][2]. - Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by another 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting and anticipate two more similar cuts next year, targeting a policy rate around 3% [2]. Group 2: Diverging Economic Perspectives - Optimists view the yield increase as a sign of confidence that the economy will avoid recession, while neutral observers see it as a return to pre-2008 financial crisis norms [1][6]. - Pessimists express concern that the rise in yields reflects a return of "bond vigilantes," who are wary of rising national debt and potential inflation risks [1][7]. Group 3: Structural Changes in the Bond Market - Analysts suggest that the current situation may indicate a structural change in the bond market, with long-term rates no longer solely influenced by central bank policies [10]. - The concept of "term premium," which compensates investors for holding long-term bonds against inflation and default risks, has increased by nearly one percentage point since the start of the current rate-cutting cycle [7]. - The current environment is compared to the "Greenspan conundrum," where excessive government borrowing has shifted from a surplus of savings to an oversupply of bonds, exerting upward pressure on yields [9][10].