跨年行情在望叠加监管鼓励长钱入市，高股息有望成市场焦点之一，中证红利ETF（515080）连续两日获近6500万元资金净流入

Core Viewpoint - Recent inflows into dividend-themed ETFs have increased significantly, attributed to market volatility and year-end institutional strategies to lock in annual returns while reallocating to dividend assets [1][4]. Fund Inflows - The China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) saw monthly net inflows of 745 million yuan in December 2023 and 1.119 billion yuan in December 2024, indicating strong capital inflow effects [3]. - In December 2023, the cumulative net inflow for the China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) was 22 million yuan, with a total of 270 million yuan over the past 10 days [3]. Regulatory Impact - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) recently issued a notice to lower the risk factors for insurance companies, which is expected to encourage long-term investments in high-dividend stocks [5]. - Although the immediate capital release is limited, the overall direction is clear, favoring an increase in equity allocations by insurance funds [5]. Market Trends - Institutions are optimistic about a potential year-end market rally, with the dividend sector likely to attract renewed attention from funds [6]. - Historical data shows that the China Securities Dividend Index has a seasonal performance pattern, with an 80% probability of positive returns in November and a 50% probability in December since 2015 [6]. Investment Strategy - The recent policy changes are expected to enhance the allocation of insurance funds to dividend stocks, with estimates suggesting a shortfall of 0.8 to 1.6 trillion yuan in current allocations [5]. - The investment strategy for insurance funds is evolving from aggressive buying to a more selective approach, potentially expanding beyond traditional sectors like banking [5]. Future Outlook - The end of the year and the beginning of the next quarter are critical periods for insurance fund allocations, with dividend assets expected to be a focal point for long-term investments [8]. - Analysts suggest that the upcoming economic work conference could serve as a key policy window for initiating a year-end market rally [8].