美国债市现“三十年罕见之分歧”：美联储降息前夜 美长债收益率却“不跌反涨”

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts challenges traditional market logic and indicates a significant divergence in expectations between investors and the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Market Reactions - Since the Fed began its current rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, the benchmark interest rate has been reduced by 1.5 percentage points to a range of 3.75%-4% [1]. - Contrary to expectations, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased by nearly 0.5 percentage points to 4.1%, while the 30-year yield has risen by over 0.8 percentage points [1]. - Market participants anticipate another 25 basis point cut in the upcoming Fed meeting and expect two more similar cuts next year, targeting a policy rate around 3% [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - In the last 40 years, during non-recessionary rate-cutting cycles (1995 and 1998), the Fed only cut rates by 75 basis points, and the 10-year Treasury yields either fell or increased at a much lower rate than currently observed [5]. - The current situation is viewed as a potential return to pre-2008 financial crisis norms, moving away from the historically low rates established during the pandemic [8]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Inflation Concerns - Analysts suggest that the rise in yields may reflect a market adjustment to the Fed's previous aggressive rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation, which has led to a ceiling on the decline of yields [8]. - Concerns about persistent inflation above the 2% target and the resilience of the economy have led to increased term premiums, indicating investor anxiety about the Fed's pace of rate cuts [9]. - Political pressures, particularly from President Trump, may further complicate the Fed's decision-making, with fears that aggressive rate cuts could lead to soaring mortgage rates [9]. Group 4: Structural Changes in the Bond Market - The current bond market dynamics are compared to the "Greenspan conundrum," where excessive government borrowing has shifted from a surplus of savings to an oversupply of bonds, exerting upward pressure on yields [10]. - The conclusion drawn is that the determination of long-term rates may be increasingly influenced by structural changes in the global economy rather than central bank policies [10].