东吴证券：从周期波动到红利稳健 电解铝企业今年将完成红利资产转变

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks in the electrolytic aluminum sector, which are expected to increase profit margins and dividend ratios by 2026, driven by further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a synchronized global economic recovery [1] Group 1: Cost and Profit Dynamics - The decline in costs has become a significant investment logic, with profits shifting from upstream alumina to the smelting sector as aluminum prices rise. By November 2025, the profit level for China's electrolytic aluminum industry is projected to exceed 4,500-5,000 yuan per ton, with further profit expansion expected in 2026 due to ongoing cost improvements and rising aluminum prices [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Trends - The growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is peaking, with a projected production capacity of 47.769 million tons and an operational capacity of 44.135 million tons by November 2025. The growth rate of aluminum production is expected to slow to 1.14% in 2026, down from a compound annual growth rate of 3.48% from 2020 to 2024. Structural changes in demand are anticipated, with the share of aluminum used in construction decreasing from 29% in 2021 to 21% in 2025, while transportation and power sectors will see increases [3] Group 3: Global Supply Risks - The global electrolytic aluminum supply faces risks of stagnation, with potential new effective capacity estimated at 2.461 million tons from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026. After accounting for expected production cuts, the actual contribution to global production in 2026 is projected to be only 860,000 to 1.25 million tons, indicating a growth rate of just 1.2% to 1.7%. The copper-aluminum price ratio suggests that aluminum prices may be influenced by rising copper prices, providing a dual benefit for the aluminum industry [4] Group 4: Transition to Dividend Assets - The electrolytic aluminum sector is undergoing a transition from being a cyclical stock to a dividend asset, with a shift from "incremental competition" to "stock optimization" since 2021. As capital expenditures decline, the industry is expected to maintain high profit levels, providing sufficient cash flow for improving balance sheets and enabling sustainable dividends, leading to an increase in overall dividend yields in the electrolytic aluminum sector [5]