LI AUTO-W(HK:02015) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-08 02:14Core Viewpoint - Li Auto is facing its most severe test since its establishment, with significant declines in revenue and net loss reported in the third quarter, marking the end of 11 consecutive quarters of profitability [2][24][26]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Li Auto reported revenue of 27.365 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, and a net loss of 624 million RMB, compared to a profit of 2.821 billion RMB in the same period last year [3][26]. - Vehicle sales revenue for Q3 was 25.9 billion RMB, down 37.4% year-on-year and 10.4% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to a decrease in vehicle deliveries [6][28]. - The total vehicle deliveries in Q3 were 93,211 units, a 39.0% decrease year-on-year, while competitors like NIO and Xpeng saw significant growth in their deliveries [6][28]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q4 deliveries to decline further, projecting a drop of 37% to 30.7%, with total revenue anticipated to be between 26.5 billion and 29.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.2% to 40.1% [13][35]. - Li Auto has revised its annual sales target for 2025 from 700,000 to 640,000 units, with cumulative deliveries reaching only 328,916 units by October, indicating less than 60% of the target achieved [8][31]. Challenges and Strategic Shifts - Li Auto's CEO, Li Xiang, indicated that the company is returning to a startup model, moving away from a professional management structure, and aims to innovate through self-developed AI and hardware technologies [18][39]. - The company is facing challenges in its range-extended electric vehicle (REEV) segment, which has seen a decline in market share due to increased competition and the maturation of the market [14][36]. - Li Auto's flagship pure electric model, MEGA, has faced criticism and has not replicated the success of its REEV models, contributing to the overall decline in sales [15][37]. Financial Health - As of Q3 2025, Li Auto's cash reserves stood at 98.9 billion RMB, but the company is experiencing cash flow issues, with a net cash outflow of 7.4 billion RMB compared to a net inflow of 11 billion RMB in the same period last year [11][35]. - The company reported a free cash flow deficit of 8.9 billion RMB, indicating a significant deterioration in financial health [11][33]. Market Position - Li Auto is the only new energy vehicle manufacturer among its peers to report a revenue decline in Q3, contrasting sharply with the growth reported by NIO and Xpeng [6][28]. - The company's stock price has also suffered, dropping over 33% from its peak in September, reflecting investor concerns about its future performance [15][37].