证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199790 2026年1月30日 核心观点 电动化数据跟踪：2025年12月行业景气度低于预期，2026年1月以旧换新政策落地 ———————————————————————————————— ◼ 2025年12月多数省市以旧换新政策预算资金池告罄，消费者观望情绪严重，行业零售同比下滑明显；批发层 面车企主动调节生产/库存节奏，环比下行。2025年12月新能源汽车零售渗透率58.7%，同环比分别+10.9/- 2.5pct。12月乘用车行业渠道去库6.9万辆，其中新能源车去库4.3万辆。12月新能源车格局基本保持稳定，其 中比亚迪市占率25%，环比+0pct；吉利市占率11%，环比-1pct。2026年1月乘用车以旧换新政策落地。 证券研究报告 乘用车1月月报：内需静待改善，出口韧性较强 全球化数据跟踪：2025年12月东南亚市场新能源渗透率超预期，比亚迪出口表现超预期 投资建议与风险提示 2 ———————————————————————————————— —————— ...

该行指出，此轮价格上涨主要源于供应瓶颈，相信在消费降级趋势及第一季传统淡季下，车企较难将成 本转嫁给对价格敏感度较高的消费者，企业将要通过垂直整合及技术升级来吸收额外成本，亦可能要依 靠营运手段，包括与供应商谈判更大幅度的年度降价等。 汇丰发布研报称，近期金属及存储芯片等上游原材料价格急升，预料将在短期内为汽车厂商带来显著成 本压力，由于电动车的原材料使用密度更高，生产商面临阻力将更大，其中锂价在过去三个月飙升约 127%，估计金属材料的价格上涨可能导致每辆车成本增加3,000至5,000元人民币，而存储芯片涨价或带 来额外1,000至3,000元人民币的成本，直接对电动车的成本结构造成打击。 汽车股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，广汽集团（601238）(02238)跌3.69%，报3.65港元；长城汽车（601633） (02333)跌2.66%，报13.19港元；理想汽车-W(02015)跌2.58%，报65.95港元。 ...

汇丰发布研报称，近期金属及存储芯片等上游原材料价格急升，预料将在短期内为汽车厂商带来显著成 本压力，由于电动车的原材料使用密度更高，生产商面临阻力将更大，其中锂价在过去三个月飙升约 127%，估计金属材料的价格上涨可能导致每辆车成本增加3,000至5,000元人民币，而存储芯片涨价或带 来额外1,000至3,000元人民币的成本，直接对电动车的成本结构造成打击。 智通财经APP获悉，汽车股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，广汽集团(02238)跌3.69%，报3.65港元；长城汽车 (02333)跌2.66%，报13.19港元；理想汽车-W(02015)跌2.58%，报65.95港元。 该行指出，此轮价格上涨主要源于供应瓶颈，相信在消费降级趋势及第一季传统淡季下，车企较难将成 本转嫁给对价格敏感度较高的消费者，企业将要通过垂直整合及技术升级来吸收额外成本，亦可能要依 靠营运手段，包括与供应商谈判更大幅度的年度降价等。 ...

这是半佛仙人的第1965篇原创 1 很多人都好奇一件事情，现在的车为了续航，造型越来越像风的形状，车头越来越短，车 身越来越矮，安全会不会越来越缩水。 好问题。 能问出这个问题的人，是真准备掏钱买车的人。 因为他意识到了买车的本质——安全。 相比性能，加速，豪华，沙发等等等等这些东西。 生命安全，才是最重要的。 车坏了可以修了，人坏了就只能重修。 啥也没有命重要。 至于说安全性到底如何，我只能说，就跟车的性能一样，越来越猛了。 别笑，是真的。 这几年汽车的进化不仅仅在性能上，也在安全上。 毕竟都是动辄零百7秒内的庞然大物，如果只升级速度不升级强度，那现在全球都应该在 组装汽车人配件。 直觉上来看，车头短了，车身矮了，动不动就要给大货车表演一个滑铲了，的确有点不靠 谱。 但汽车安全是个非常复杂的工程，直觉上可能认为车头长就安全，或者铁皮厚就安全。 各种短视频也热衷播放那些辆车相撞，谁前脸没了，但我车一动不动。 但大家都受过九年义务教育，知道基础的力传导。 真实的汽车碰撞约等于隔山打牛，对方一拳过来中间隔着金山银山照样打崩你。 为什么三体人上来就b a n掉了地球人的物理学？ 因为物理学没有商量的空间，他不会因为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the China Railway Group has declared the 12306 platform as the only official ticket sales channel, stating that it has not partnered with any third-party platforms and will enhance its system to combat ticket scalping [2][3] - The China Railway Group's passenger department director, Zhu Wenzhong, highlighted the negative impact of third-party platforms on the stability of the 12306 system and announced plans to optimize the risk control system for effective identification [3] - The railway authority is focusing on four key areas for ticket sales organization: addressing the needs of students, workers, and the elderly; introducing a limited-time free refund policy for erroneous purchases; continuously improving ticket sales strategies; and ensuring the stable operation of the 12306 system [5] Group 2 - The article mentions that the 2026 Spring Festival travel period is expected to see a record 9.5 billion person-times of cross-regional movement, with self-driving travel being the main mode of transport, accounting for about 80% [6] - The article also notes that the total passenger volume for railways and civil aviation is projected to reach 540 million and 95 million respectively during the Spring Festival travel period, with both figures expected to exceed historical peaks [6]

同时，该负责人表示，"对于数据调取，理想汽车可以向用户提供基础行车数据，但辅助驾驶的数据目前没有现行的国标要求。受限于目 前辅助驾驶的数据回传机制和车端存储能力限制，需要进行远程触发回读，但是存在数据量过多情况下的数据覆盖情况。目前理想汽车 方面仍在与用户积极沟通，希望尽快妥善解决此事。" （文章来源：南方都市报） 近日，有理想汽车L6车主称，其开启辅助驾驶功能后"车辆突然失控变道导致发生碰撞事故"，"且车企无法提供辅助驾驶相关数据"，消 息引发关注。1月29日，理想汽车相关负责人向南都N视频记者表示，"经技术人员根据行车记录仪进行初步分析，事发时为冬季午后低角 度阳光直射场景，辅助驾驶传感器在极端光线条件下识别存在局限性。" 行车记录仪视频截图。 据了解，该车主表示，1月10日16时，其在驾驶途中接了一个蓝牙电话，便打开了智能辅助驾驶系统（NOA）。行车记录仪显示，车辆正 对夕阳行驶，在红绿灯路口起步后直行7秒，车速提升至36km/h，突然向后偏转，2秒后车速降至29km/h并退出NOA状态，与右侧车道的 一辆黑色轿车发生碰撞，所幸未造成严重后果。道路交通事故认定书显示，该车主因违规变道负全责。该车主称，" ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto is undergoing a strategic recalibration by closing approximately 100 inefficient retail stores while simultaneously investing in AI and robotics, reflecting a dual approach of contraction and expansion in response to market challenges [2][4][12]. Group 1: Retail Strategy and Market Position - In early 2026, Li Auto plans to close around 100 low-efficiency retail stores, which are often located in prime areas of first and second-tier cities, as part of a broader strategy to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [4][27]. - The adjustment is not merely a cost-cutting measure but a strategic realignment following a year of declining performance, as consumers increasingly prefer shopping in multi-level commercial spaces rather than traditional car showrooms [6][29]. - In 2025, Li Auto set an ambitious sales target of 700,000 vehicles, which was later revised down to 640,000, with actual deliveries falling to approximately 406,343 vehicles, resulting in a loss of market leadership to competitors like Leap Motor [7][30]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Li Auto's third-quarter revenue for 2025 was reported at 27.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, with a net loss of 624 million yuan, marking the end of 11 consecutive profitable quarters [9][32]. - The decline in performance is attributed to setbacks in the pure electric vehicle market and increased competition from rivals employing aggressive pricing strategies [9][32]. - The company currently operates 548 retail centers, which incurs significant costs, prompting the need for channel optimization to improve overall efficiency [10][33]. Group 3: Future Strategy and AI Investment - Li Auto is shifting its focus towards AI technology and robotics, with plans to develop foundational models, chips, and intelligent systems, aiming to position itself among the top three global players in this field by 2028 [12][37]. - The company has expressed intentions to expand its brand identity from merely creating "mobile homes" to a broader vision encompassing "embodied intelligence," including the development of humanoid robots [14][37]. - Following the announcement of store closures and AI investments, Li Auto's stock rose by 4.9%, indicating positive market reception despite differing opinions among investors regarding the company's long-term competitiveness [16][39]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Analyst Ratings - Analysts are divided on Li Auto's long-term prospects, with optimistic views focusing on the potential of self-developed chips and AI models, while cautious perspectives highlight immediate operational pressures [18][42]. - Some analysts maintain a positive rating, projecting a target price of 100 HKD for the stock, while others have downgraded their ratings due to concerns over short-term challenges, setting a target price of 17.5 USD [18][43].

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations[9] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,827, down 2.58% for the day but up 8.57% year-to-date[3] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,978, with a slight decrease of 0.01% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 1.94%[3] Stock Performance - Gold prices surged, with spot gold exceeding $5,280 per ounce, marking a monthly increase of over 22%[9] - Semiconductor stocks saw significant gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 2.34%[9] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Intel up 11.04% and Microsoft down 6% post-earnings report[9] Sector Highlights - Oil stocks continued to rise, with Shanghai Petrochemical gaining over 5% due to geopolitical tensions driving oil prices up by 3%[9] - New consumer concept stocks performed well, with a snack retail chain soaring 69% on its debut[9] - Airline stocks faced pressure, with China Southern Airlines down 6.83% due to rising operational costs[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell to 95.51, the lowest since February 2022, contributing to the rise in gold prices[9] - The Japanese yen strengthened, impacting export-related stocks negatively, with Toyota down 3.24%[13] - The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, indicating a cautious approach to future rate hikes[13]

Li Auto Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LI) head of autonomous driving will now reportedly lead the company's Robotics effort.Shift In Strategy For Li AutoLang Xianpeng, the Chinese automaker's head of self-driving technology, will now be the company's head of hardware operations, which will see the Senior VP become responsible for Li Auto's robotics R&D, CnEVPost reported on Thursday, citing local Chinese media reports.Li Auto didn't immediately respond to Benzinga's request for comment.Li Auto has also restructured its in ...

作为有70%投票权的创始人, 李想真打算全力做硅基司机/家政了, 不是demo，奔着量产去的。做硅基 生命要求的组织形式与车企完全不同了。 李想能不能做成是另外一回事，基于现阶段综合条件，没有主体能阻止李想将调集理想全部的资源做 这事。 李想已经把话说的非常清楚了。 站在2026年1月，不论是原有巨头还是全新AI公司，组织方式基本变成一样，各个团队整合在一 起进行联合设计，共同设计硅基生命的感知/大脑/心脏/神经/软件本体/硬件本体。和过去做软 件做硬件的方式发生了根本性变化，完全不同于互联网移动互联网时代。 理想要对技术和研发团 队进行大调整，把工作权限按照最先进的公司，按协作造硅基生命的方式进行工作。 硅基司机不是从A到B点，而是生活助理， 承担充电/接孩子/取快递/处理违章等事， 家政解决做 饭、洗衣、收纳等家务。 李想认为做家政的人形机器人的紧迫感强到 必须立刻启动，再不启动就会错过第一波最后的上车 机会。 空间机器人和人形机器人一些团队从水面下浮到水面上。去招聘最好的人。把原来由于没 有机器人，看到了很多机器人创业公司的一些人再招回来。 基于李想判断今天看机器人遇到的很多难题，非常像2025年2月7 ...