理想汽車 ( 於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的 有限責任公司 ) 股份代號 : 2015 2024 年度報告 目錄 | 公司資料 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 財務表現摘要 | 3 | | 業務回顧及前景 | 5 | | 管理層討論及分析 | 9 | | 董事會報告 | 14 | | 董事及高級管理層 | 33 | | 企業管治 | 38 | | 其他資料 | 57 | | 獨立核數師報告 | 73 | | 合併資產負債表 | 77 | | 合併綜合收益表 | 79 | | 合併股東權益變動表 | 81 | | 合併現金流量表 | 82 | | 合併財務報表附註 | 84 | | 五年財務摘要 | 159 | | 釋義 | 160 | 2024年度報告 2 公司資料 執行董事 李想先生 （董事長、首席執行官兼創始人） 李鐵先生 馬東輝先生 非執行董事 王興先生 樊錚先生 獨立非執行董事 肖星教授 趙宏強先生 姜震宇先生 審計委員會 趙宏強先生 姜震宇先生 肖星教授 （主席） 薪酬委員會 李想先生 姜震宇先生 趙宏強先生 （主席） 提名及企業管治委員會 肖星教授 趙宏強先生 姜震宇先生 （主席 ...

2025 年 03 月 22 日 理想汽车-W (02015) 证券分析师 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com ——25 年重点：纯电陆续登场，继续深耕智驾，开启海外 拓展 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 101.30 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8742.44 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 138.30/68.65 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,168.71 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,785.07 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0831 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -49% 1% 51% 101% HSCEI 理想汽车-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 联系人 樊夏沛 (8621)23297818× fanxp@swsresearch.com 投资要点：公司发布 2024 年年报，公司全年实现营收 1444.6 亿元，同比+16.64%；实现归 母净利润80.32亿元，同比-31.37%。24 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 理想汽车-W（02015） 证券研究报告 纯电产品周期逐步发力，智驾迭代加速协同产品力 24Q4 业绩情况：2024Q4 公司实现营业收入 442.7 亿元，同环比分别增加 6.1%/3.3% ，归母净利润 35.3 亿元 ，同环比分别增加-38.6%/25.3%。2024 年全年营收达到 1445 亿元，同比增加 16.6%，全年实现归母净利润 80 亿元，同比下降 31.9%。公司指引2025Q1 汽车交付量为 88,000 至 93,000 辆，同比增长 9.5%至 15.7%。收入总额为人民币 234 亿元至人民币 247 亿元，同比减少 8.7%至 3.5% 盈利情况：2024Q4 整体毛利率 20.3%，其中车辆毛利率 19.7%，车辆毛利 率的下降主要由于不同产品组合及定价策略变化。2024Q4 实现营业利润 37 亿元，同比+22%；费用端公司运营效率持续提升，销售费用 31 亿元， 同环比-6%/-8%，。研发费用 24 亿元，同环比-31%/-7%，费用同比减少主 要来自产品组合和技术成本降低。 投资建议：理想今年产品周期叠加技术创新周期，产品力/全年销量均有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 132, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 105.1 [6][4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 144.46 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.6%, while net profit decreased by 31% to RMB 8.03 billion [2][4] - The key focus for the second half of 2024 will be the launch of new electric models I8 and I6, along with the application of the next-generation autonomous driving architecture, Mind VLA [4][3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 44.3 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3% [2] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 3.5 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.3% but a year-on-year decline of 38.6% [2] - The company anticipates Q1 2025 sales volume to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, which corresponds to a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [2] Product Launches - The I8 model, a six-seat mid-size SUV, is set to debut at the Shanghai Auto Show at the end of April and will be launched in July [4] - The I8 will feature a 102.7 kWh battery from CATL and support 5C fast charging technology, allowing for a 500 km range in just 10 minutes [4] - The I6 is planned for release in the fourth quarter of 2024, further expanding the company's electric vehicle lineup [4] Market Position and Strategy - As of February, the company delivered 26,000 vehicles, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.7%, although there was a month-on-month decline of 12% due to the shortened delivery cycle during the Spring Festival [3] - The company has established a robust charging network with 1,874 Ideal Supercharging stations and 10,000 charging piles across 150 cities [3]

招商证券国际发布研报称，予理想汽车-W"增持"评级，将目标价由154港元降至138港元。该行下调 2025至2026年净利润预测各19%和16%，反映上半年短期缺乏重磅新品影响，公司2024至2027年净利润 (非GAAP)预测CAGR达24.2%。报告指出，公司去年第四季业绩符合预期，毛利率承压，但费用控制得 力，现金强劲。该行预计智驾版更新以及纯电车上市后产品周期走强，智驾大模型进步神速。 该行续指，2025年指引方面，公司指引是20万以上电动车市场增速2倍，首财季后给清晰指引。公司三 方面提升销量，预计5月发布L系列智驾焕新版，纯电系列从七月开始下半年发布两款。同时增加4线和 5线城市覆盖。另外会出海规划和布局，公司已在中亚、亚太市场取得阶段性进展，并将继续增加在拉 美、中东、欧洲市场的投入。短期以平行出口为主，2026年开始大规模放量。 港股异动 | 理想汽车-W(02015)回落逾3% 机构指其 上半年短期缺乏重磅新品影响 智通财经APP获悉，理想汽车-W(02015)回落逾3%，截至发稿，跌3.57%，报108.2港元，成交额8.19亿 港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Auto, indicating an expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [10][19]. Core Insights - Li Auto's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 144.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of RMB 44.3 billion, up 6% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be RMB 8 billion, down 31% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 net profit at RMB 3.5 billion, down 38% year-on-year but up 25% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - For Q1 2025, vehicle deliveries are anticipated to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5% to 15.7%. Total revenue for this period is expected to be between RMB 23.4 billion and RMB 24.7 billion, down 8.7% to 3.5% year-on-year [3][10]. Financial Data Summary - Key financial metrics for Li Auto from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue (in million RMB): 2023: 123,851; 2024: 144,460; 2025E: 189,483; 2026E: 210,516; 2027E: 230,781, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.5%, 16.6%, 31.2%, 11.1%, and 9.6% respectively [2][3]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): 2023: 11,704; 2024: 8,032; 2025E: 13,146; 2026E: 15,434; 2027E: 17,955, with year-on-year growth rates of 681.7%, -31.4%, 63.7%, 16.6%, and 15.9% respectively [2][3]. - Fully Diluted EPS (in RMB): 2023: 5.52; 2024: 3.79; 2025E: 6.19; 2026E: 7.27; 2027E: 8.46 [2][3]. Market Position and Strategy - Li Auto is focusing on enhancing user experience through intensive OTA upgrades, which have led to an increase in the order proportion of the ADMax version, particularly in models priced above RMB 300,000 [3][10]. - The company is set to launch its first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, in July 2025, as part of its dual-energy strategy, while also expanding its charging network with 1,874 supercharging stations and 10,008 charging poles by February 2025 [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Li Auto (2015 HK) Core Insights - MindVLA is a significant technological advancement for Li Auto, transforming traditional vehicles into intelligent systems capable of autonomous decision-making and high-level intelligence [2][7] - The integration of visual, linguistic, and behavioral intelligence within the MindVLA system enhances the vehicle's ability to assess complex traffic scenarios and make rapid, safe decisions [2][8] - The next-generation VLA model introduces an action feedback module, achieving full-process closed-loop optimization from perception to execution, which significantly improves response times and safety in complex traffic environments [3][9] Summary by Sections Event - On March 18, during NVIDIA's GTC2025, Li Auto's head of intelligent driving presented the latest progress on MindVLA, with plans to launch it alongside the pure-electric SUV, Li Auto I8, this year [1][6] Comments - MindVLA represents a leap in technology, enabling vehicles to evolve into physical intelligent agents with advanced cognitive and decision-making capabilities [2][7] - The system utilizes a 3D Gaussian intermediate representation for spatial encoding and employs self-supervised learning to enhance decision-making in complex environments [2][8] - The combination of diffusion models with ODE-based samplers optimizes trajectory prediction, improving real-time responsiveness and adaptability [2][8] VLA Model Comparison - The next-generation VLA model outperforms existing end-to-end + VLM systems by integrating an action feedback module, allowing for real-time data fusion and intelligent decision-making [3][9] - This model enhances the vehicle's ability to predict risks and adjust strategies quickly, thereby improving overall robustness and safety [3][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (stock code: 2015.HK) [1][4][5] Core Views - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, but net profit decreased by 31.37% to 8.03 billion yuan [4][6] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, up 6.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, down 37.74% year-on-year [4] - The company delivered 500,500 vehicles in 2024, a 33.10% increase year-on-year, with Q4 deliveries reaching 158,700 units, a 20.40% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 276,800 yuan in 2024, primarily due to the increased sales of lower-priced models [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2025E: Revenue of 186.90 billion yuan, net profit of 11.49 billion yuan, EPS of 5.41 yuan [6][8] - 2026E: Revenue of 235.39 billion yuan, net profit of 15.40 billion yuan, EPS of 7.26 yuan [6][8] - 2027E: Revenue of 276.45 billion yuan, net profit of 19.11 billion yuan, EPS of 9.01 yuan [6][8] - Key Financial Ratios: - 2024: Gross margin at 20.53%, net profit margin at 5.56% [8] - 2025E: Gross margin expected to decrease to 19.86% [8] - 2024 R&D expense ratio at 7.66%, with a focus on maintaining cost control [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - The launch of new electric models, including the i8 and i6, is expected to enhance market competitiveness and drive sales growth [4][5] - The company is expanding its charging infrastructure, with plans to increase the number of charging stations to 4,000 by the end of 2025 [4][5] - Li Auto is focusing on international market expansion, establishing a presence in Central Asia and planning to enter markets in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (stock code: 2015.HK) [1] Core Views - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, but net profit decreased by 31.37% to 8.03 billion yuan, with an EPS of 4.03 yuan [4] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.09%, and a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, down 37.74% year-on-year but up 25.18% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company delivered 500,500 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.10%, with Q4 deliveries reaching 158,700 units, up 20.40% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 276,800 yuan in 2024, with Q4 ASP at 268,700 yuan, down 12.29% year-on-year [4] - The company expects Q1 2025 deliveries to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025E Revenue: 186.90 billion yuan, Net Profit: 11.49 billion yuan, EPS: 5.41 yuan - 2026E Revenue: 235.39 billion yuan, Net Profit: 15.40 billion yuan, EPS: 7.26 yuan - 2027E Revenue: 276.45 billion yuan, Net Profit: 19.11 billion yuan, EPS: 9.01 yuan [6][8] - The company’s gross margin for vehicle sales in 2024 was 19.8%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [4] - R&D expense ratio for 2024 was 7.66%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points year-on-year [4] Strategic Initiatives - The launch of new electric models, including the i8 SUV in July and the i6 later in the year, aims to enhance market presence [4] - Upgrades in intelligent driving technology and expansion of charging infrastructure are expected to boost sales [4] - The company is focusing on international market expansion, establishing a luxury brand image in Central Asia and planning to enter markets in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the gross profit margin is temporarily affected by preferential policies, but the upcoming new vehicle cycle is expected to contribute to incremental growth [4]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved sales of 159,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.8%, generating revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, which is a 6.1% increase year-on-year and a 3.3% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - The vehicle gross margin reached 19.7%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the impact of a December interest-free car purchase policy [4]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In Q4 2024, the average selling price per vehicle was approximately 269,000 yuan, with total vehicle sales revenue of 42.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2% [4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 delivery volumes to be between 88,000 and 93,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [4]. Profitability - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.52 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a decrease of 37.7% year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin was 9.1%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the profit per vehicle was 25,000 yuan, a decrease of 9,000 yuan year-on-year [4]. Product Strategy - The company has a clear product planning strategy with a lineup of "four range-extended electric vehicle models and one high-voltage pure electric model," covering the market above 200,000 yuan [4]. - The company has optimized its direct sales channel structure, with 500 retail centers across 150 cities as of the end of February 2025 [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates strong new vehicle cycles starting in 2025, which will open up sales opportunities for the company [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 9.77 billion, 14.18 billion, and 19.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.7X, 15.6X, and 11.3X [4].