邓正红能源软实力：原油市场震荡运行 呈现“供应可控、需求平淡”的均衡状态

Group 1: Market Overview - The current oil market is experiencing wide fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances affecting supply, while overall demand remains lackluster during the off-season, leading to a lack of sustained price rebounds [1][2] - OPEC has raised its daily crude oil production target by approximately 2.9 million barrels since April 2025 but plans to halt further increases in the first quarter of 2026, indicating a cautious approach to managing supply amid ongoing overproduction concerns [1][3] - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 500,000 to 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, with emerging markets showing resilience compared to traditional markets [3][4] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical events, such as attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, have exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's energy supply chain, impacting its soft power in the market [2] - U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies have had short-term effects on supply, but Russia has developed resilient networks to maintain exports, showcasing its adaptive capabilities [2] - U.S. actions against Venezuela's drug trafficking could threaten the country's production capacity of 1.1 million barrels per day, reflecting the indirect influence of non-energy policies on oil-producing nations [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC's gradual adjustments to production targets demonstrate its ability to maintain market share while avoiding price crashes, highlighting its collective action as a form of soft power [3] - The U.S. shale oil sector is expected to see a strategic contraction in production, with companies focusing more on shareholder returns rather than expansion, indicating a shift towards value creation [3] - The structural imbalance in U.S. oil inventories, with a slight year-on-year increase in crude oil but a significant weekly surge in refined products, reflects the refining system's adjustment capabilities [4] Group 4: Financial Resilience - Saudi Arabia's fiscal adaptability is evident in its budget deficit control for the 2026 fiscal year, which is set at $44 billion, demonstrating its ability to buffer against oil price volatility [4] - The increase in U.S. oil and gas drilling rigs to 549, despite a 5% decrease from 2024, indicates selective investment reflecting industry capital's long-term price expectations [4] - The current market equilibrium of "controllable supply and subdued demand" is characterized by a dynamic balance of multiple soft power factors, which may continue until 2026 [4]