国金证券：风险因子下调引导长钱长投 险资权益配置限制再放开

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies is expected to enhance the growth outlook for the insurance sector in 2024, with a focus on long-term wealth preservation and value-added policies [1][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a notice on December 5 to adjust risk factors related to insurance companies' business [1]. - The risk factor for stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 and the CSI Low Volatility 100 Index has been reduced from 0.3 to 0.27, while for stocks held over two years in the STAR Market, it has been lowered from 0.4 to 0.36 [2]. Group 2: Impact on Investment Capacity - The solvency ratio, defined as actual capital over minimum capital, influences the upper limit of equity investments for insurance companies. The adjustment in risk factors allows for an expansion in stock allocation [3]. - The overall impact of the risk factor adjustment on solvency is expected to be limited, with estimated increases in solvency ratios for major life insurance companies remaining under 3% [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - An estimated 550 to 600 billion yuan of incremental funds is expected to enter the market next year, with varying levels of stock accumulation among companies [6]. - Major state-owned enterprises are projected to invest 30% of new premiums into A-shares, translating to approximately 250 billion yuan entering the market [6]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading insurance companies with favorable business quality and low liability costs, particularly those with good expectations for the "opening red" period [8].