国金证券：从2025医保谈判看行业风向 成功率提升创新导向持续强化

Core Viewpoint - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has released the new basic medical insurance drug list for 2025, which will take effect on January 1, 2026, leading to a significant increase in the success rate of new drug negotiations, particularly for innovative drugs with high clinical value [1][2]. Group 1: New Drug Negotiation Success - The success rate for new drug negotiations in 2025 has significantly improved to 88%, up from 76% in 2024, with 114 new drugs added to the national medical insurance drug list, including 50 Class 1 innovative drugs [2][3]. - The total number of drugs in the national medical insurance drug list has increased to 3,253, enhancing coverage for critical areas such as cancer, chronic diseases, mental health, rare diseases, and pediatric medications [2]. Group 2: Unique Drug Inclusion - Among the 114 newly added drugs, 105 are unique varieties, representing 92.11% of the total, including 98 Western medicines and 7 traditional Chinese medicines [3]. - The inclusion of unique traditional Chinese medicines from companies like China Resources Sanjiu, Yiling Pharmaceutical, and others indicates a balanced representation in the new drug list [3]. Group 3: Market Potential and Growth - The inclusion of 116 drugs in the latest negotiation, particularly 11 new drugs from Heng Rui Medicine and others, is expected to lead to rapid market share growth and product volume increase due to their entry into the medical insurance directory [4][5]. - The negotiation also included new mechanism drugs, such as antibody-drug conjugates and small nucleic acid siRNA drugs, which are anticipated to drive market penetration and accessibility [5]. Group 4: Commercial Health Insurance Directory - The first commercial health insurance innovative drug directory saw intense competition, with 121 candidates but only 24 entering negotiations, resulting in 19 drugs being successfully included [6]. - The directory covers critical diseases such as Alzheimer's and multiple myeloma, with a balanced mix of imported and domestic drugs [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies with a significant number of innovative drugs included in the new medical insurance directory, such as Heng Rui Medicine, BeiGene, and others, are recommended for investment [9]. - Potential growth in traditional Chinese medicine products included in the new directory, such as those from China Resources Sanjiu and Yiling Pharmaceutical, is also highlighted [9].