美元跌势不止！人民币在岸价逼近7.2大关，或成更值钱的全球资产

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, indicating a potential shift towards a stronger currency era for China [1][3]. Group 1: External Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has created a favorable environment for the RMB, as recent US employment data has shown a weaker job market, increasing speculation about future rate reductions [3]. - Potential new leadership at the Federal Reserve advocating for monetary easing could lower the federal funds rate from 3.75-4% to below 3%, which would further weaken the US dollar and allow for appreciation of non-USD currencies [3]. Group 2: Internal Factors - The improvement in trade relations, particularly the easing of tariffs on Chinese exports to the US, has significantly alleviated export pressures, especially following a new trade agreement reached in late October [5]. - The People's Bank of China has strategically reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds and ensured sufficient dollar reserves for corporate settlement needs, while domestic companies continue to repatriate earnings from overseas operations, addressing foreign exchange concerns [5][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of the A-share market has attracted substantial foreign capital inflows, increasing demand for the RMB. The central bank's guidance through the midpoint rate and corporate currency settlement practices have amplified the appreciation momentum [7]. - The competitive landscape of manufacturing has shifted from solely relying on labor cost advantages to a focus on comprehensive cost advantages, which China excels at, thereby reducing concerns about the impact of RMB appreciation on exports [9]. Group 4: Export Trends - China's export structure is evolving, with a significant increase in high-value products such as electric vehicles and industrial robots, leading to a reduced sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations [11]. - The transition from low-cost goods to high-end manufacturing enhances China's bargaining power in global supply chains, further solidifying the RMB's position [11][14]. Group 5: Long-term Support for RMB - The long-term strength of the RMB is supported by China's unique industrial independence, allowing it to avoid reliance on external supplies in most sectors, which is rare globally [13]. - As domestic consumption and industrial upgrades progress, the RMB's global demand is expected to rise, particularly if cross-border transactions increasingly utilize the RMB, thereby enhancing its international recognition [16].