“木头姐”的ARK公开Space X“估值模型”：2030年A，2.5万亿美元！

Group 1 - SpaceX is currently valued at $800 billion, doubling its valuation from $400 billion just seven months ago, and is on track to become the highest-valued private company in the U.S. [1] - The company is considering an initial public offering (IPO) in 2026, marking a potential path for its long-term growth [1]. - ARK Invest predicts that SpaceX's enterprise value could reach approximately $2.5 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual return rate of about 38% starting from a valuation of $350 billion in December 2024 [2][3]. Group 2 - The ARK report highlights the "flywheel" logic supporting SpaceX's vision, where cash flow from the Starlink business reinvests into Starship technology and ultimately supports Mars colonization [2]. - The report's Monte Carlo simulations indicate a bullish scenario with a valuation of around $3.1 trillion and a bearish scenario with a valuation of about $1.7 trillion by 2030 [3][4]. - The model includes 17 key independent variables that simulate various potential outcomes for SpaceX's future developments, including its Mars exploration plans [4][9]. Group 3 - The Starlink constellation is expected to generate approximately $300 billion in annual revenue by 2035, capturing about 15% of global communication spending [16]. - The model suggests that as the reusability of Starship increases, the marginal cost of satellites will rise significantly, impacting revenue generation and capital expenditure [18][20]. - The performance of satellites is a critical input variable in the model, influencing the efficiency and cost of bandwidth deployment [20][21]. Group 4 - SpaceX's long-term goal is to enable multi-planetary living, particularly through the development of infrastructure for Mars colonization [26]. - The model assumes that SpaceX will initially allocate a small portion of its budget to Mars until the Starlink constellation is completed, after which resources may shift towards Mars [29]. - The productivity of the Optimus robots is expected to improve over time, contributing to the infrastructure needed for permanent colonies on Mars [31].