5.5元/支 比奶茶还便宜，疫苗价格“跳水”背后

Core Insights - The vaccine industry is experiencing intense competition characterized by price wars and oversupply, leading to significant price drops for various vaccines [1][3][4] - The China Vaccine Industry Association has issued an initiative to combat "involutionary" competition and promote high-quality development in the vaccine sector [1][2] - The current market conditions are described as a "winter" for the vaccine industry, with a structural differentiation in competition where some vaccines are priced at unsustainable levels [5][6] Price Trends - The price of the bivalent HPV vaccine has plummeted from over 300 yuan to around 30 yuan, a decrease of nearly 90% [3] - The three-valent flu vaccine has reached a record low of 5.5 yuan, significantly lower than previous prices [3] - Other vaccines, including shingles and pneumonia vaccines, are also experiencing price reductions as part of the ongoing price war [3] Public Perception and Trust - The drastic price reductions may lower public vaccination costs but could also undermine trust in vaccine quality [4][5] - Concerns about the safety and efficacy of low-priced vaccines may lead to a reluctance to vaccinate among the public [4][5] - The perception that vaccines are "not worth much" due to low prices could hinder the establishment of a healthy market view on vaccination [4] Industry Performance - The price war has resulted in significant financial pressure on vaccine companies, with many reporting declining revenues and profits [6] - Only 5 out of 14 listed vaccine companies saw revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, while 10 companies reported a decline in net profit [6] - The overall public willingness to vaccinate remains low, with flu vaccination rates in Shanghai estimated at less than 5% for the general population [6][7] Factors Influencing Vaccination Rates - Public awareness of diseases, vaccine pricing, and the convenience of vaccination services are key factors affecting vaccination willingness [7] - The lack of understanding about the severity of diseases like influenza contributes to low vaccination rates [7] - The infrastructure for vaccination services in China is still developing, with a need for improved accessibility and convenience [7][8] Future Market Potential - Despite current challenges, the long-term potential of the Chinese vaccine market remains strong, driven by an aging population and rising chronic disease rates [9][10] - The "Healthy China" strategy emphasizes prevention, which is expected to increase demand for vaccines among specific populations [9][10] - Companies are adapting to these trends by integrating preventive and therapeutic services into their business models [9][10]