今晚，油价或将下调！

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment of domestic refined oil prices is expected to result in the eleventh price decrease of the year, with consumers saving approximately 2 yuan for a full tank of gasoline in a private car [1][2]. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism for domestic refined oil is based on the weighted average price of international crude oil over the past ten working days compared to the previous week [1]. - If the price change per ton is less than 50 yuan, no adjustment will be made, and the unadjusted amount will be carried over to the next pricing cycle [1]. Current Market Conditions - The current pricing cycle has seen a negative change rate of -1.24% as of December 5, leading to a potential reduction of 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1]. - The overall market has been characterized by a narrow fluctuation in oil prices due to mixed factors, including geopolitical tensions and inventory levels in the U.S. [1]. Impact on Consumers and Industries - Consumers will experience reduced fuel costs, with a small car saving about 2 yuan for a full tank of 92 gasoline, while heavy trucks running 10,000 kilometers a month could see a reduction of approximately 89 yuan in fuel costs [2]. - After the adjustment, the retail prices for diesel will range from 6.4 to 6.6 yuan per liter, and 92 gasoline will be priced between 6.7 and 6.8 yuan per liter [2]. Future Outlook - The next pricing window is set for December 22, 2025, with expectations of a slight price increase based on current international crude oil prices [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential supply risks may lead to a higher probability of price increases in future adjustments [2][3].