君諾金融：美联储早已降息，美债收益率却依旧上涨

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is facing strong opposition from the bond market, leading to a divergence between short-term policy rate declines and long-term Treasury yield increases, breaking a nearly 40-year market transmission pattern [1] Group 1: Economic Context - Since the 1990s, there has never been a scenario where a central bank continuously cuts rates while key-term U.S. Treasury yields rise simultaneously, indicating a complex interplay of economic fundamentals, policy credibility, and political intervention risks [3] - Since September, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively lowered the benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentage points from a 20-year high, currently maintaining a range of 3.75%-4% [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Market traders are increasingly aggressive in their expectations for policy easing, betting on a 25 basis point cut this week and pricing in the possibility of two additional cuts of the same magnitude next year, potentially bringing rates down to around 3% [3] - The 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 0.5 percentage points to 4.1% since the start of the rate cut cycle, while the 30-year yield has surged over 0.8 percentage points, contrasting sharply with historical performance during previous non-recessionary rate cuts in 1995 and 1998 [3] Group 3: Divergent Perspectives - Optimists view the yield increase as a direct reflection of economic resilience, suggesting that rate cuts effectively mitigate recession risks and bolster confidence in growth prospects [3] - A neutral perspective emphasizes a correction of the abnormally low interest rate environment post-2008 financial crisis, with current rates seen as a return to pre-crisis norms, signaling the end of the ultra-low rate era induced by the pandemic [3] - Some analysts warn that rising yields reflect investor concerns over U.S. debt expansion and uncontrolled inflation, with the New York Fed indicating that the term premium, which measures long-term risk compensation, has surged nearly 1 percentage point since the rate cuts began [4]