A股唯一不骗人指标：换手率大于15%，代表主力已进场

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that a turnover rate exceeding 15% in the A-share market is a reliable indicator of institutional investors entering the market, serving as a signal for retail investors to take action [1][3]. Group 1: Understanding Turnover Rate - Turnover rate is defined as the proportion of shares traded in a day relative to the total circulating shares, indicating the "activity level" of a stock [3]. - In 2025, the average turnover rate for A-share main board stocks was reported at only 1.03%-1.37%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had a slightly higher range of 1.85%-2.30% [3]. - A turnover rate of 15% signifies that nearly one-fifth of the circulating shares have changed hands, indicating a highly active trading environment [3]. Group 2: Low Turnover Rate as a Buying Signal - A high turnover rate at low price levels is a strong indicator that institutional investors are accumulating shares, as they have limited profit-taking opportunities [4]. - Data from 2025 shows that stocks with a turnover rate between 15%-20% and a price drop of over 40% in the past year had a 67% probability of rising in the following 10 days [4]. - Characteristics of genuine institutional buying include a volume increase of 50%-80% compared to the previous five trading days, without a sudden drop in turnover rate [4]. Group 3: High Turnover Rate as a Selling Trap - Retail investors often misinterpret a high turnover rate at elevated price levels as a buying signal, leading to potential losses [6]. - In 2025, stocks with a turnover rate exceeding 20% and a price increase of over 50% in the last three months had a 76% probability of declining in the following month [6]. - Indicators of a selling trap include high turnover with stagnant price movement or significant net selling by institutional investors [6]. Group 4: Practical Guidelines for Investors - Investors should first assess the stock's price position, looking for a drop of over 30% and a position below the 60-day moving average before considering a 15% turnover rate as reliable [7]. - The turnover rate must be accompanied by sustained volume increases; a sudden spike followed by a drop is likely a false signal [7]. - Basic fundamentals should also be considered, as stocks with strong performance forecasts and policy support have a higher probability of rising compared to those without [7]. Group 5: Conclusion on Turnover Rate - While there are no absolute indicators in the A-share market, turnover rate serves as a significant marker of institutional activity that cannot be easily manipulated [8]. - Retail investors are advised to focus on turnover rates in conjunction with price position, volume, and fundamentals to better understand institutional intentions [8].