房价暴跌50%！为什么还没出现“集体断供潮”和“银行倒闭”？

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant declines in housing prices across various cities in China, a wave of mortgage defaults has not materialized, and banks remain stable, indicating unique characteristics of the Chinese housing and banking systems [3][5][19]. Housing Price Decline - Many cities, particularly in lower-tier markets, have experienced housing price reductions exceeding 50%, with specific cities like Langfang and Baoding seeing declines of 69% and 66% respectively [4][5]. - The overall sentiment is that even with substantial price drops, the anticipated mortgage default crisis has not occurred, contrasting with expectations based on international experiences [5][19]. Mortgage Structure and Borrower Behavior - The structure of mortgages in China differs significantly from that in the U.S., with fixed-term loans and strict repayment conditions, making it less likely for borrowers to default [7][9]. - Most borrowers rely on stable income sources to repay loans, and the cultural emphasis on homeownership leads many to continue payments despite financial strain [11][13][16]. - The consequences of default, including damage to credit scores and social stigma, deter many from considering it an option [14][16]. Bank Stability and Risk Management - Chinese banks maintain low non-performing loan ratios, with major banks reporting rates below 1% for personal housing loans, reflecting effective risk management practices [5][19]. - The requirement for substantial down payments (often around 30%) reduces the risk for banks, as even in the event of defaults, losses are minimized [9][21]. - The banking system's conservative approach to lending and the backing of government policies contribute to its resilience [21]. Cultural and Social Factors - The concept of homeownership in China is deeply ingrained, with homes viewed as essential for family stability, education, and social status, leading to a reluctance to default [13][14][16]. - The societal pressure to maintain creditworthiness and the fear of social repercussions from defaulting play significant roles in borrowers' decisions to continue making payments [16][21]. - The phenomenon of "sacrificing personal comfort" to uphold mortgage obligations reflects a broader cultural attitude towards responsibility and family honor [21].