供应担忧挥之不去 白银和铜超越黄金成为热门金属

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver and copper have replaced gold as the hot metals for trading heading into 2026, with both institutional and retail traders building positions for record price increases [1] - Silver prices have nearly doubled this year, with most gains occurring in the past two months due to soaring demand for silver ETFs and historic supply tightness in the London market [1][2] - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, saw nearly $1 billion in inflows last week, surpassing the largest gold fund, further supporting spot silver prices [1] Group 2: Volatility and Investor Behavior - Western investors, previously under-allocated in precious metals, are flocking to silver ETFs, indicating significant room for further inflows as allocations normalize [2] - The implied volatility of options for silver has reached its highest level since early 2021, reflecting increased retail trader interest [1][2] - Higher volatility in the silver market may require substantial price movements to sustain momentum, especially as the market enters uncharted territory [2] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - Demand for copper is expected to rise due to its financial attributes being less pronounced, but increasing needs from AI data centers and clean energy projects may lead to supply shortages in the coming years [4] - Recent price movements have seen copper futures rise above $11,600 per ton, with a structural bullish outlook due to supply constraints from major mine disruptions [4] - Global supply-demand balance for copper has tightened significantly, influenced by actual or potential tariffs affecting copper inflows to the U.S. [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - The current supply tightness in both precious metals and copper is partly attributed to arbitrage trading, with potential for a 10% to 15% pullback in the short term, but this is not expected to affect long-term trends [5]