卓创资讯：成品油零售限价或遇下调 下轮初始或存上调预期

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease for the tenth time this year due to the sustained negative change rate of international crude oil prices during the current pricing cycle [3][4]. Group 1: Pricing Cycle and Market Conditions - During the pricing cycle from November 24, 2025, to December 8, 2025, international crude oil prices have shown narrow fluctuations, with the change rate remaining in negative territory [3][4]. - As of December 5, the reference crude oil change rate was -1.24%, leading to a potential reduction of 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel retail prices, effective at 24:00 on December 8 [4][8]. - The price adjustments will result in a decrease of approximately 0.04 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.05 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.05 yuan for 0 diesel per liter [4][8]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Logistics - For a small private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up with 92 gasoline will cost about 2 yuan less after the price adjustment [4][8]. - For a small private car running 2,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, the total fuel cost will decrease by approximately 3 yuan before the next pricing window on December 22 [4][8]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers will see a reduction of about 89 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [4][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Attention is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a weaker dollar potentially providing long-term support for crude oil prices, while short-term oil prices are expected to maintain a strong trend [5][9]. - The new pricing cycle is anticipated to start with a positive change rate, with an expected increase of 75 yuan per ton on the first day, with the next adjustment window set for December 22 [5][9].