Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-08 06:42Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market, particularly for Moutai, is experiencing a rational and differentiated consumption pattern as the "Double 12" shopping event approaches, with sales performance of premium brands becoming a key indicator of market health [1] Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumers are increasingly decisive in purchasing high-end liquor, with a notable increase in foot traffic and sales at physical stores, indicating a recovery in demand [2] - New sales channels, such as live streaming, are becoming significant for reaching consumers, with one distributor achieving over 1 million yuan in sales during a single live session by offering competitive prices and ensuring product authenticity [2][3] - The demand for genuine products is prioritized by consumers, leading to a rapid release of consumption willingness once trust is established [2] Group 2: Pricing and Market Stability - Moutai distributors are reducing inventory, suggesting that more products will flow to the end market, contributing to price stabilization [3] - As of December 8, the terminal price for Moutai is reported at 1,811 yuan, reflecting a stable market trend supported by data from approximately 200 collection points [4] - Prices for Moutai vary by region, with southern regions seeing prices between 1,710-1,750 yuan, while Guangdong averages around 1,947 yuan, indicating a solid price structure supported by seasonal demand [7] Group 3: Demand Structure and Digital Transformation - The demand structure for Moutai is becoming more stable and realistic, with increasing self-consumption and rational investment behaviors, while business consumption remains strong [7] - The launch of the "i Moutai" Douyin account aims to enhance brand reach and educate consumers about the app's features and Moutai's cultural significance [7] - Moutai is exploring pathways for traditional distributors to enter e-commerce platforms, reflecting a proactive approach to digital channels and market trends [8] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investment Outlook - Capital markets are responding positively, with a net inflow of 163 million yuan into Moutai shares, and several institutions maintaining "buy" and "hold" ratings, indicating confidence in Moutai's long-term value [8] - Analysts suggest that the high-end liquor demand will remain robust as year-end consumption scenarios improve, supported by Moutai's brand strength and channel system [8]