“木头姐”的ARK公开Space X“估值模型”：2030年，2.5万亿美元！

Core Insights - SpaceX is currently valued at $800 billion, doubling its valuation from $400 billion just seven months ago, and is on track to become the highest-valued private company in the U.S. [1] - The company is considering an IPO in 2026, marking a potential significant milestone in its nearly 25-year history [1]. - ARK Investment Management predicts that SpaceX's enterprise value could reach approximately $2.5 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual return rate of about 38% starting from a valuation of $350 billion in December 2024 [1][3]. Valuation Predictions - The ARK report outlines three scenarios for SpaceX's valuation by 2030: a base case of $2.5 trillion, a bull case of $3.1 trillion (75th percentile), and a bear case of $1.7 trillion (25th percentile) [4][3]. - The predictions are based on a Monte Carlo simulation that incorporates 17 key variables affecting SpaceX's potential outcomes [5][42]. Business Model and Cash Flow - The report emphasizes a "flywheel" logic where cash flow from the Starlink business supports the iteration of Starship technology, ultimately laying the groundwork for Mars colonization [2][12]. - SpaceX's revenue from Starlink is projected to be around $300 billion annually by 2035, capturing approximately 15% of global communication spending [19]. Technological Assumptions - The valuation heavily relies on the successful rapid reusability of the Starship and the performance of the Optimus humanoid robot [2][42]. - Satellite performance is a critical input variable in the model, influencing revenue generation and capital expenditure [23][24]. Market Dynamics - The ARK model suggests that as Starship reusability improves, the marginal cost of satellite deployment will decrease, enhancing the economic viability of SpaceX's operations [31][28]. - The completion of the Starlink constellation is expected to shift SpaceX's focus and resources towards Mars development [36]. Long-term Vision - SpaceX aims to facilitate multi-planetary living, particularly through the development of infrastructure on Mars, supported by technologies from its other ventures [34]. - The model anticipates that the contribution of Mars-related activities to SpaceX's enterprise value will grow over time, although initial cash flows from these activities may be speculative [36].