供需面宽松格局不改 尿素期货行情延续震荡回落

Group 1 - The domestic urea futures market is experiencing a fluctuating downward trend, with the main contract opening at 1661.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 2.08% [1] - Urea prices are facing increased resistance to rise, as industrial compound fertilizer enterprises have ramped up production, leading to a sustained high daily output of urea and a generally loose supply-demand situation [2] - The marginal demand for urea has shown some improvement, with compound fertilizer weekly operating rates increasing by 3.5% to 40.5%, and the number of urea orders rising by 0.7% to 7.35 [2] Group 2 - Urea inventory has decreased to 1.291 million tons, down by 73,000 tons week-on-week, indicating ongoing destocking efforts [2] - Despite a number of maintenance activities in December affecting around 7 million tons of total capacity, daily production is expected to remain high at 19-20 thousand tons, with a reported daily output of 19.68 thousand tons, which is an increase of 1.49 thousand tons year-on-year [2] - The urea market is currently supported by fundamentals and policies, with short-term downward space being effectively supported while facing upward pressure, leading to expectations of continued fluctuations [2]