【大行报告】DWS：美联储局 12 月议息会议前再次陷入两难局面

Group 1 - DWS's chief U.S. economist Christian Scherrmann comments on the upcoming December FOMC meeting, indicating that the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma due to limited and potentially distorted official data from the government shutdown [1] - Private labor market data shows a continued slowdown in employment, while official unemployment claims data remains moderate, suggesting that the weak labor market is primarily due to the normalization post-pandemic and changes in cost structures due to tariffs [1] - Concerns about rising healthcare costs potentially increasing labor costs, especially for small businesses, are contributing to recent employment weakness, although widespread layoffs are not imminent [1] Group 2 - The lack of real-time official data on inflation complicates decision-making for policymakers, with the latest available data from September showing inflation remaining at a high level of around 3% [2] - Consumer sentiment is low, primarily affected by inflation and weakening income prospects, particularly among low-income groups, while high-income earners seem unaffected by strong asset market performance [2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing hawkish and dovish stances, with potential implications for financial conditions and short-term consumption depending on their decisions [2] Group 3 - DWS expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, but acknowledges that a decision to hold off until January for more data collection would also be understandable [3] - The responsibility for effective communication and balance will fall on Chairman Powell, as the Fed's credibility may be challenged by either hawkish or dovish decisions [3]