Biotech博弈：从“跟跑”到“并跑”的差异化崛起

Core Insights - The global biotech landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with China's innovative drugs projected to exceed $120 billion in licensing deals by October 2025, reflecting a growth of over 190% year-on-year. This indicates that Chinese biotech companies have evolved from mere imitators to a formidable force in the global innovation landscape [1]. Group 1: Global Biotech Industry Structure - The global innovative drug industry follows a "smile curve" structure, with CRO/CDMO (Contract Research Organization/Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) at the upstream, biotech companies as the innovative entities in the midstream, and large pharmaceutical companies (Big Pharma) managing commercialization at the downstream [2]. - Biotech companies are positioned in the high-value area of the smile curve, bearing the highest R&D risks while enjoying the greatest potential for innovation returns. They typically focus on early-stage drug development and often realize value through acquisitions or licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical firms [4]. Group 2: Comparison of US and Chinese Biotech - The US biotech sector is currently facing severe survival challenges, with the Nasdaq Biotech Index under pressure and over 20 US biotech companies shutting down in 2025 due to funding issues. This is exacerbated by a cautious M&A strategy among multinational corporations (MNCs) amid tightening cash flows [7]. - In contrast, China's biotech sector is experiencing a surge in business development (BD) transactions, driven by its advantages in R&D efficiency, cost, and clinical resources. MNCs are increasingly attracted to Chinese biotech firms for their differentiated characteristics and high cost-effectiveness [9]. - Chinese biotech companies are focusing on differentiated innovation strategies, particularly in areas like antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) and bispecific antibodies, leading to a pipeline that surpasses that of the US, ranking first globally [10]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The growth trend of China's biotech industry is expected to be long-term and predictable, with upcoming international academic conferences likely to showcase more Chinese original drugs, offering substantial returns for investors [11]. - For ordinary investors, navigating the complexities of investing in innovative drug stocks can be challenging. Instead of chasing individual "blockbusters," it may be more prudent to consider ETFs that cover industry leaders, such as the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF, which tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug Index [11][12].