所有商品都将“像黄金一样”！美银Hartnett：做多大宗商品是明年最佳“火热交易”

Group 1 - The core view is that by 2026, going long on commodities will be the best trading theme, with all commodity charts expected to show upward trends similar to gold, driven by a shift in global economic policy from "monetary easing + fiscal tightening" to "fiscal easing + de-globalization" post-pandemic [1][3] - The report highlights that the combination of excessive fiscal easing and a relatively smaller degree of monetary easing after the pandemic, along with the end of globalization, will allow commodities to outperform bonds in the 2020s characterized by populism and inflationary growth [3][5] - The Latin American stock market has seen a significant increase of 56% year-to-date, indicating a broader breakout in natural resources and metals [3][5] Group 2 - Hartnett emphasizes that the oil and energy sectors, long overlooked by the market, represent the best "hot trade" contrarian investment opportunities, influenced by the economic policies of the Trump administration and geopolitical changes [5] - Historical patterns indicate that after the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair, bond yields typically rise, with an average increase of 65 basis points for 2-year yields and 49 basis points for 10-year yields within three months [6][9] - The current market is cautious about bonds due to the anticipated "hot" economic policies, with the potential for significant market movements concentrated in the first half of 2026 [12] Group 3 - The stock market is exhibiting a more complex and differentiated pattern compared to the overall pressure in the bond market, with liquidity peaks corresponding to credit spread lows [13] - In the AI sector, the focus is on adopters of AI technology rather than spenders, with mid-cap stocks expected to perform well in 2026 due to potential economic stimulus from the Trump administration [16] - Specific sectors such as cyclical "Main Street" industries (homebuilders, retail, paper, transportation, and REITs) are seen as having the best relative upside potential, supported by anticipated domestic economic support [16]