供应端担忧萦绕 沪铜继续走强【12月8日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Group 1 - Copper prices showed a slight increase in the morning and rose further in the afternoon, reaching a peak of 93,300 yuan, closing up by 1.54% [1] - Concerns about tight supply at the mining level and potential impacts on the smelting sector have intensified, coupled with low inventories in non-US regions, providing strong support for copper prices [1] - Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, has set a historical high for copper premiums to US customers, exceeding $500 per ton above the London Metal Exchange (LME) [1] Group 2 - The LME copper cancellation warrants surged by nearly 60,000 tons last week, indicating a growing supply gap outside the US, which is expected to support copper prices in the long term [1] - Despite rising copper prices, downstream purchasing willingness remains low, disrupting the pace of domestic refined copper inventory reduction [1] - Concerns about future copper supply have resurfaced due to unfavorable negotiations for concentrate and refined copper long-term contracts, along with increased maintenance shutdowns at smelting companies [1] Group 3 - The LME copper price has significantly increased, reaching new historical highs, while domestic copper prices remain stable but weaker than LME, leading to expectations of substantial exports in the first quarter [1] - Current short-term macroeconomic and fundamental issues have been overshadowed by concentrate shortages, high premiums for long-term contracts, and inventory liquidity concerns, with market sentiment shifting towards external market dynamics [1]