全球科技股2025年走势复盘与2026年展望：AI引领+国产替代成核心逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has outperformed the broader market in both US and Asian markets, particularly since August, driven by strong interest in AI-related investments and a favorable liquidity environment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the A-share market, the Shenwan Electronic/Communication/Computer indices have significantly outperformed the broader market, benefiting from the rise of DeepSeek and a revaluation of technology assets in mainland China [1]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen over a 30% increase year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, with strong inflows from southbound capital [3]. - In the US market, the NASDAQ 100 has experienced a larger decline compared to the S&P 500 in the first quarter, but has since rebounded due to easing concerns over tariff policies and strong earnings from tech companies [4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The Shenwan Electronic and Communication indices have similar trends, benefiting from AI-related valuations and high liquidity since August [2]. - The Shenwan Computer Index experienced significant volatility in the first quarter, with a focus on software companies leveraging AI to reduce costs and improve efficiency [2]. - The semiconductor and hardware sectors are expected to remain strong, with positive outlooks for storage prices through 2026, driven by demand from downstream manufacturers [5]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI and domestic substitution as key investment themes, identifying scarce resources within the industry [5]. - Specific investment recommendations include companies involved in communication infrastructure, data centers, and AI hardware, with a positive outlook for capital expenditures from operators [6].