驳斥AI泡沫论！瑞银：数据中心毫无降温迹象，上调明年市场增速预期至20-25%

Core Insights - UBS reports that the global data center equipment market shows no signs of cooling, with current construction capacity reaching 25GW and operational capacity at approximately 105GW [1] - The industry is expected to grow by 25-30% by 2025, with strong momentum continuing into 2026 [1][4] - UBS raises mid-term growth expectations, forecasting a market growth rate of 20-25% in 2026, supported by low vacancy rates and strong construction data [1][4] Market Growth Projections - Following a projected 25-30% growth in 2025, the growth rate for 2026 is expected to remain high at 20-25%, with 15-20% growth anticipated in 2027 and 10-15% from 2028 to 2030 [4] - Vacancy rates in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific are at historical lows of 1.8%, 3.6%, and 5.8% respectively, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [4] Cooling Technology and Capital Expenditure - The cooling market is expected to perform exceptionally well, with a projected 20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) by 2030, and liquid cooling technology leading with a 45% growth rate [7] - AI data centers are experiencing a structural change in construction costs, with costs per megawatt increasing by approximately 20% compared to traditional data centers, primarily due to upgrades in cooling and power infrastructure [8] AI Revenue and Market Dynamics - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) from major AI-native applications has reached $17 billion, accounting for 6-7% of the current SaaS market [10] - The adoption rate of generative AI (GenAI) is unprecedented, with companies reporting an average revenue growth of 3.6% and cost reductions of 5% over the past year [10] Technological Shifts - The transition to 800V direct current (DC) architecture is expected to reshape the competitive landscape, with widespread deployment anticipated by late 2028 to early 2029 [16] - Demand for medium voltage (MV) equipment is expected to remain stable, while low voltage (LV) AC equipment may face risks from higher voltage DC distribution [16]