港股IPO观察 | 欧林生物赴港，超级细菌疫苗的故事能化解“纸面富贵”隐忧吗？

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Olin Biological Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted its application for a mainboard listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step towards a dual listing in both A-share and H-share markets [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Olin Bio, established in 2009 and headquartered in Chengdu, specializes in the research, development, and production of human vaccines, with its main product being the adsorbed tetanus vaccine, which dominates the domestic market [1] - The company has shifted its strategic focus towards the development of innovative vaccines targeting multi-drug resistant bacteria [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Olin Bio's financial performance shows a duality; while revenue has been stable due to a nearly 70% market share of its core product, the net profit margin remains low, fluctuating between 2% and 5% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 305 million yuan and a net profit of 13.23 million yuan, successfully turning around from losses [2] - The company's sales and distribution expenses have consistently exceeded 50% of revenue, and R&D expenses have remained above 20%, with 134 million yuan allocated for R&D in 2024 [2] Group 3: Revenue Dependency and Risks - The adsorbed tetanus vaccine is the primary revenue driver, contributing 80.1% to 93.7% of total income from 2022 to 2024, with projected sales of 536 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 90.99% of total revenue [3] - The reliance on a single product poses significant risks, as any fluctuations in market demand or competition could severely impact the company's performance [3] - Market forecasts for the adsorbed tetanus vaccine have been downgraded, with projections for 2030 reduced from 2.434 billion yuan to 1.5 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Accounts Receivable and Liquidity Issues - The company's accounts receivable rose from 524 million yuan in 2022 to 694 million yuan by mid-2025, with over 53.2% of receivables aging over one year [4] - The lengthening collection period has negatively impacted cash flow, with accounts receivable turnover days increasing from 272 days in 2022 to 328 days in 2025 [4] - The accumulated impairment losses on accounts receivable exceeded 46 million yuan during the reporting period, further eroding already thin net profits [4] Group 5: Capital Market Activities - Olin Bio terminated a planned A-share private placement aimed at raising 175 million yuan, later reduced to 125 million yuan, due to market conditions and company development plans [5] - The controlling shareholder reduced their stake by approximately 12.18 million shares, cashing out around 279 million yuan, leading to a decrease in their ownership percentage [5][6] Group 6: Future Prospects and Challenges - To mitigate reliance on a single product, Olin Bio is focusing on developing a "super bacteria vaccine," with its core candidate, a recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, currently in Phase III clinical trials [7] - The company aims to launch this product by 2027, alongside other vaccines targeting antibiotic-resistant bacteria [7] - However, the high costs and risks associated with R&D pose significant challenges, as historical precedents indicate potential pitfalls in vaccine development [7]